石油石化行业点评：石化行业拐点或已出现，26年长丝供需格局改善盈利有望增长

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" indicating an expected price increase exceeding 10% compared to the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [5][8]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a turning point with improving macro conditions for refining globally. The exit of outdated refining capacity overseas and a significant recovery in refining profits in 2025 are noted, with the US and Singapore cracking spreads reaching $18.72 and $13.17 per barrel, respectively, both up 24% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and shifting consumption taxes are accelerating the exit of outdated capacity, leading to an increase in industry operating rates [1]. - The anticipated depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the RMB could lower crude oil procurement costs for refineries, potentially increasing profits for companies like Dongfang Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec by 15 billion, 19 billion, and 198 billion yuan, respectively, with profit elasticities of 732%, 115%, and 50% [1]. - The refining processing profit is expected to rebound after hitting a low in 2025, with average gross margins for several companies showing a year-on-year increase [1]. Summary by Sections Long Fiber Supply Chain - The long fiber supply chain is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026, with operating rates for PX, PTA, and long fibers at 84%, 76%, and 89%, respectively, showing slight year-on-year changes [2]. - PX price spreads have increased from $203 per ton in Q1 2025 to $267 per ton in Q4 2025, while PTA processing fees have risen significantly from 73 yuan per ton to 362 yuan per ton [2]. - New capacity for PX, PTA, and long fibers is expected to slow down, with projected production increases of 500, 0, and 315 million tons, respectively, leading to a supply-demand improvement in 2026 [2]. Industry Profit Growth - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive profit growth in the industry, particularly for PTA and long fibers, as the supply-demand situation improves [3]. - The PTA and long fiber industries have high concentration rates, with CR8 concentrations at 62.43% and 68.58%, respectively [3]. - Assuming a hypothetical increase in PTA and long fiber gross margins, significant profit growth is projected for several companies, with elasticities indicating substantial potential for profit increases [3]. - Recommended companies to watch include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Sinopec, and Huajin Co., among others [3].