Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rose and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.44%, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Supported by the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the rebar price rebounded from a low level. However, supply continued to increase while demand was weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. The price of rebar in the off - season remained under pressure, with cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.48%, also showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest. Currently, the commodity sentiment is positive, and combined with the strong trend of raw materials, the hot - rolled coil price rebounded from a low level. But the supply - increase and demand - weak situation has not improved the fundamentals, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and both volume and open interest decreased. At present, the market sentiment is positive, and the iron ore price remains at a high level. However, the supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the trading logic returning to the industrial side [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the average annual operating rate of excavators in China was 56.9%. The average working hours of major construction machinery products were 926 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 6.15%. The operating rate of major construction machinery products was 55.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.77 percentage points [7]. - In 2025, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 30 cities reached 214 million square meters, a new high in the past five years, mainly driven by price - for - volume factors. The average transaction price of second - hand housing in 30 cities retreated by about 39% from the previous high, and the median price decline of popular second - hand housing communities was about 26.07%. In Shanghai, 693 high - end second - hand residential properties worth over 30 million yuan were sold in 2025, accounting for 43% of the national market in this segment [8]. - A Brazilian court has ruled to resume the environmental permit process for the expansion project of Samarco's iron ore mine in Minas Gerais. The project was previously halted due to environmental permit disputes. Samarco's current annual production capacity is about 15 million tons, and the expansion plan aims to achieve medium - and long - term production capacity recovery [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,210, and 3,352 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,220, and 3,321 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,090. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 0, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 [10]. - The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 815, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 787. The sea freight from Australia was 8.18, and from Brazil was 22.06. The SGX swap price (current month) was 108.85, and the Platts index (CFR) was 109.25 [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,168, with a daily increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 1,350,602, a decrease of 586,620, and the open interest was 1,781,802, an increase of 40,419 [12]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,317, with a daily increase of 0.48%. The trading volume was 696,880, a decrease of 246,626, and the open interest was 1,440,895, an increase of 63,008 [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 813.0, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The trading volume was 442,605, a decrease of 48,010, and the open interest was 636,674, a decrease of 29,907 [12]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, national 45 - port iron ore inventories (including inventory and its seasonal changes, and inventory month - on - month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [14][19]. - It also shows charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The inventory has increased significantly, and construction steel mills have continued to resume production. The weekly output of rebar increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise with room for further increase. The demand for rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. Although the high - frequency transactions increased due to holiday factors, both the apparent demand and high - frequency transactions were at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed little. Plate steel mills' production stabilized. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply continued to rise and remained at a relatively high level. With a high inventory level, the supply pressure was not relieved, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month. The high - frequency daily transactions were at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provided some support for hot - rolled coil demand, industrial contradictions were accumulating, and export performance was average, so there were concerns about demand. It is expected that the trend will maintain a fluctuating state [38]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken, and the inventory reached a high level. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore began to rise. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increased slightly last week. However, the improvement in steel mills' profitability was limited, and the steel market entered the off - season, making it difficult to support a large - scale resumption of production by steel mills. The improvement in iron ore demand was limited, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by steel mills was a relative positive factor. At the same time, the port arrivals rebounded again, and the shipments from overseas miners declined as expected. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals are expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Even though domestic mine production was seasonally weak, the overall supply remained at a high level. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic [39].
产业矛盾累积，钢矿震荡回落：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260108
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-01-08 11:18