宏观固收周报：地缘局势升级，大宗分化-20260108

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has escalated, which has a limited overall impact on the capital market but a significant impact on some commodities [14][15] - In the domestic equity market, the overall trend of A-shares is less likely to be affected, but there may be impacts on some structural sectors or industries. Investment opportunities in sectors such as military, aerospace, satellites, precious metals, new energy, photovoltaics, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence are recommended [15] - In the domestic bond market, bonds may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield above 1.80% has allocation value [15] - In the commodities market, the prices of precious metals such as gold may benefit from the escalation of geopolitical risks and are expected to resume their upward trend. If US oil companies repair Venezuela's oil infrastructure, oil supply may increase, and oil prices may face pressure [16] Group 3: Market Performance Summary Stock Market - In the past week (20251229 - 20260104), the three major US stock indexes declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by -1.52%, -1.03%, and -0.67% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 5.11%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 2.01% [5] - A-share sectors had both gains and losses. The wind all-A index changed by 0.61%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro-cap stocks changed by -0.90%, -0.59%, 0.09%, -0.13%, -0.10%, and 0.46% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue-chip and growth stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by -1.55%. In terms of industries, 13 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, and the leading sectors were comprehensive finance, petroleum and petrochemicals, and national defense and military industry, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0% [6][7] Bond Market - In the past week, most maturity varieties of China's Treasury bonds saw an increase in yields. The 10-year Treasury bond futures main contract declined by 0.41% compared to December 26, 2025. The yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond increased by 0.51 BP to 1.8427%. Except for the 3-month maturity variety, the yields of other maturity varieties increased [8] - The US Treasury bond yields of long-term varieties increased. As of January 2, 2026, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield changed by 5 BP to 4.19% compared to December 26, 2025. The yields of varieties with a maturity of 3 years and above increased [10][11] Currency Market - The US dollar strengthened, but the RMB still appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index increased by 0.43%. The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by 0.49%, 0.35%, and 0.24% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.49% to 6.9706 as of January 2, 2026, and the US dollar against the onshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.28% to 6.9890 as of December 31, 2025 [12] Commodity Market - Gold prices declined. The spot price of London gold fell by 2.85% to $4352.95 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price fell by 5.02% to $4317.80 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also declined, with Shanghai gold spot falling by 3.19% to 974.9 yuan per gram and futures falling by 4.07% to 971.74 yuan per gram [13] Capital Market - The capital price declined. As of January 4, 2026, R007 was 1.4525%, a decrease of 7.39 BP compared to December 26, 2025; DR007 was 1.4286%, a decrease of 9.51 BP compared to December 26, 2025, and the spread between the two widened. The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 9024 billion yuan in the past week [9]