金信期货纸业日刊-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The price of waste paper rebounded due to the price increase of leading paper mills but will be weak after the festival as downstream demand has not improved [5]. - For box - board paper, although the supply contraction expectation is increasing, the current supply - demand situation is still supply - strong and demand - weak, with high inventory and price stability but profit pressure. After the Spring Festival, if the shutdown plan is implemented and demand recovers, there may be a price repair window [13]. - The price of double - offset paper will be range - bound. Small paper mills may continue to exchange price for volume, while large - scale mills are more likely to hold prices. The futures price has rebounded to repair the previous discount, but the upside space is limited in the medium - long term [20]. - For pulp futures, it is recommended to trade in a range. Short positions can be lightly tried at high prices, and long positions can be tried at low prices when the port inventory falls below 2 million tons and has been decreasing for 5 consecutive weeks [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Waste Paper - Price: On January 8, the China Renewable Resources Waste Paper Price Index (mainstream caliber) was 1598.24, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.44%, and many paper mills across the country lowered prices by 20 - 30 yuan [4]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is relatively sufficient, with some fluctuations in recycling volume due to weather. Paper mills adjust prices regionally. Demand is weak, and downstream packaging factories mainly make rigid purchases with weak pre - festival stocking willingness [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of paper mills and packing stations is at a medium level. The inventory pressure of some paper mills in South and East China has slightly increased, and the overall inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down [4]. - Profit: The profit of packing stations is meager, and the profit of the waste carton recycling link is at a low level, with the overall profitability being weak [4]. Box - Board Paper - Price: On January 8, the domestic packaging box - board paper was generally stable but slightly declined. Jiulong Paper in some areas such as Jiangsu Taicang and Tianjin lowered the price by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply: The supply is abundant. Some paper mills plan to shut down for maintenance or switch production due to poor profitability. Leading paper enterprises have announced shutdown plans at the beginning of 2026, increasing the supply contraction expectation, but the short - term supply is still sufficient [13]. - Demand: Downstream demand is still weak, with insufficient orders in the packaging industry. Coastal areas have relatively better shipment, while inland areas are slower. Terminal customers are cautious in purchasing and mainly consume existing inventory [13]. - Inventory: Paper mill inventory continues to rise, and the industry inventory level is at a relatively high level this year. The inventory reduction pressure is large due to weak downstream demand [13]. - Profit: The profit margin is limited. Affected by raw material costs and high inventory, the profitability of box - board paper enterprises is low. Some small paper mills are near the break - even point, while large paper mills have relatively better profitability through scale effects and cost control, but the overall industry profit is under pressure [13]. Double - Offset Paper - Price: The price of double - offset paper is stable. In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of high - white double - offset paper is 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton, and that of natural - white double - offset paper is 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [20]. - Supply: The supply is abundant, the paper mill operating rate has increased, and the production capacity is sufficient. Some paper mills exchange price for volume to maintain market share [20]. - Futures: The futures price has rebounded to repair the previous discount, but the upside space is limited in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. Pulp Futures - Price: On January 8, the quotation of softwood pulp in Shandong area decreased by 50 yuan [29]. - Supply and Demand: Downstream paper mills' profits are weak, and they mainly make rigid purchases. The operating rates of double - offset paper and white cardboard have decreased month - on - month, and the spot trading is light, but the futures market is bullish [29]. - Inventory: The port inventory has fallen below 2 million tons and has been decreasing for 5 consecutive weeks, which can be used as a signal for long - position entry [29].