国投期货化工日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The propylene futures market has good demand and smooth production enterprise shipments, but the futures price declined slightly. The plastic and polypropylene futures markets are stable, with price support from factors such as market sentiment and supply - demand [2]. - The pure benzene futures market has a weakening transaction in Shandong, and the styrene futures market is in a stalemate due to the cost pressure of pure benzene and good downstream demand [3]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as weakening terminal demand, price fluctuations of raw materials, and inventory changes, with different trends for each product [5]. - The methanol market is affected by rumors of MTO device maintenance, and the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range [6]. - The PVC market has weak demand and increasing inventory, while the caustic soda market has large supply pressure and limited rebound height [7]. - The soda ash market is under pressure of oversupply, and the glass market may have opportunities to go long after a callback [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures: The main contract opened high and declined slightly. Demand is good, and the market trading atmosphere is maintained [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures: The main contracts fluctuated. The polyethylene market is strong, and the price center of gravity moves up. The polypropylene price is supported by factors such as tight supply and downstream demand [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures: The main contract declined slightly, and the Shandong market transaction weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and consider positive spreads in the medium - term [3]. - Styrene futures: The main contract is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is good, but the cost of pure benzene suppresses the price [3]. 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices declined, and the processing difference of PTA was moderately repaired. The demand is affected by the weakening terminal [5]. - Ethylene glycol: New domestic devices are about to be put into production, and overseas devices are shut down. It is under long - term pressure and may improve in the second quarter [5]. - Short fiber: The inventory is low, but the demand is weak. The price fluctuates with raw materials [5]. - Bottle chip: The demand is weakening, and the price is driven by cost. There is new investment in the short - term and maintenance in the future [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The market declined due to rumors of MTO device maintenance. Future imports are expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [6]. - Urea: The price fluctuated. The production enterprise inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range with the approaching of spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The price was weak. The demand is low, the inventory increased, and the cost support is acceptable. The price center of gravity is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - Caustic soda: The price declined. The supply pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The price declined. It is under pressure of oversupply, and a short - selling strategy can be considered [8]. - Glass: The price fluctuated strongly. The inventory decreased, and there may be opportunities to go long after a callback [8].