PP日报：震荡运行-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - PP is expected to have limited upside potential due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shorter downstream order cycles, despite a warm macro - atmosphere [1]. - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there is new plastic production capacity coming online and the agricultural film peak season is ending [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 2nd, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of拉丝, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - On January 8th, new maintenance units such as Fujian United's second - line were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 78.5%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard product拉丝 decreased to around 22.5% [1][4]. - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - On the cost side, although the US military raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, the key oil facilities in the country are intact, and its production accounts for less than 1% of the global supply. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and the crude oil price remains weak [1]. - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement [1]. - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the 2026 trade - in and "two - heavy" quotas, which warms the macro - atmosphere and boosts market sentiment [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6456 yuan/ton, the highest was 6532 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6484 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.31%. The open interest decreased by 8586 lots to 511,792 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6020 - 6480 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 8th, new maintenance units were added, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 78.5%, and the production ratio of standard product拉丝 decreased to around 22.5% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 2nd, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of拉丝, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 575,000 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5/ton to $745/ton week - on - week [4].