沥青日报：高开后震荡下行-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the near term, and the far - month asphalt/near - month crude oil will oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable last week. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The high - price transactions of low - sulfur asphalt in Northeast China were sluggish, and the refinery shipments were blocked, with a large decrease in shipments. The national shipments decreased 3.22% to 263,100 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years. The US military attack on Venezuela may affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt, and attention should be paid to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries. This week, the main refineries in East China intermittently shut down, and the asphalt operating rate remained low [1]. - Demand side: Road construction in the North is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the North continues to be released. The overall demand in the South is average, and the low - price supply from southern refineries has decreased. The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.70% to 3,132 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,128 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,188 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,081 to 224,334 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Zhongyou Gaofu shut down for maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical switched production. The asphalt operating rate dropped 3.9 percentage points to 27.4% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to November 2025, the actual cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 4.7%, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation. From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1%, a further decline from - 0.1% from January to October 2025. As of the week of January 2, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, the same as that from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 2, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 0.7 percentage points to 12.9% compared with the week of December 26, and was near the lowest level in recent years [4].