原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行-20260108

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The crude oil price is in a weak and volatile state. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern due to factors such as high global crude oil floating storage, increased Middle - East exports, and concerns over demand, despite the OPEC+ decision to maintain the production plan and the unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories [1]. Summary by Directory 1.行情分析 - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026, with the next meeting scheduled for February 1 [1]. - During the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that US crude inventories declined more than expected, but refined product inventories increased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continued to rise [1]. - US crude production slightly increased and remained near the historical high, and the number of US rigs continued to rise slightly [1]. - After the US - Ukraine talks, there were developments regarding the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and there were statements about post - cease - fire troop deployments. Trump also warned India on Russian oil purchases [1]. - The crack spreads of refined products in Europe and the US were low. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and had been below 50 for 10 consecutive months, leading to market concerns about crude oil demand [1]. - The global crude oil market had shown signs of digesting the restricted Venezuelan exports. The US government asked oil companies to invest in Venezuela, but the industry was cautious. Trump said Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [1]. 2.期现行情 - The futures price of the main crude oil futures contract 2602 on the day fell 2.02% to 416.2 yuan/ton, with a low of 414.1 yuan/ton and a high of 422.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 98 to 33,068 lots [2]. 3.基本面跟踪 - EIA raised the US crude production forecast for Q4 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, increased non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and raised global crude production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered global oil demand for Q4 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day and for 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and for 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that US crude inventories for the week ended January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels (expected to increase by 447,000 barrels), 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels (expected to increase by 3.186 million barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels (expected to increase by 2.109 million barrels). Cushing crude inventories increased by 728,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its October crude production was cut by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly due to production cuts in Iraq and Iran [4]. - OPEC+ crude production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October, reaching 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude production for the week ended January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day and remained near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, 1.68% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel weekly demands both decreased, driving the weekly supply of US crude products to decrease by 0.77% month - on - month [4][6].