PVC日报：震荡下行-20260108

Report Summary - Industry Investment Rating: The report does not provide an investment rating for the PVC industry. Instead, it suggests a "wait - and - see" approach for PVC [1]. - Core View: The PVC market shows a trend of downward oscillation. Although the macro - environment is favorable, factors such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited export demand put pressure on the PVC price. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Grouped by Report Sections 1.行情分析 (Market Analysis) - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, while the downstream operating rate decreased by 0.58 percentage points due to poor orders [1]. - Last week, export orders decreased slightly. The prices in the Indian market are low, and the demand is limited. The CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia prices dropped by 20 USD/ton and 30 USD/ton respectively [1]. - Social inventory continued to rise and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas from January to November 2025 [1]. - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. New production capacity, such as the 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua, has recently started trial production [1]. - The macro - environment is favorable, but the comprehensive gross margin of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the output decline is currently limited, with high futures warehouse receipts [1]. 2.期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market) - The PVC2605 contract decreased by 0.99% to close at 4905 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4075 lots in open interest to 1,036,668 lots. The price fluctuated between 4871 yuan/ton and 4992 yuan/ton and was above the 20 - day moving average [2]. - The mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4650 yuan/ton on January 8. The basis of V2605 was - 255 yuan/ton, strengthening by 47 yuan/ton and remaining at a relatively low level [3]. 3.基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Analysis) - On the supply side, some devices such as Jiangsu Xinpu and Ningbo Hanwha resumed production. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - New production capacity, including Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), was put into operation in the second half of the year. Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area all declined year - on - year [5]. - As of the week of January 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [5]. - As of the week of December 31, PVC social inventory increased by 1.45% week - on - week to 1.0766 million tons, 36.24% higher than the same period last year, remaining at a high level [6].