软商品日报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and current investment prospects [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and available investment chances [1] - Timber: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and proper investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balance of long and short trends and poor market operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing market conditions, supply - demand situations, and inventory data for each, and giving corresponding operation suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped significantly today with a large reduction in positions, and the recent rise was mainly driven by expectations. The downstream situation is average, and spot sales are normal with a stable - to - weak basis [2] - Although new cotton production has increased significantly, commercial inventory is lower year - on - year, and the sales progress is faster, providing strong support to the market. Demand remains stable during the off - season [2] - As of December 25th, cumulative processed lint reached 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. As of December 15th, national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons [2] - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is resilient, with low finished - product inventory, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the production expectation gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress is fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output, while Thailand's progress is slow and output is lower than expected [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In December in Guangxi, both production and sales decreased. December production was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons; sales were 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons; industrial inventory was 105.71 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.21 million tons [3] - The significant drop in sales is due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there is a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season, the production progress is slow. If production cannot increase later, futures prices will rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated at a high level. Spot prices remained stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, some soft - semi - commodity fruit farmers lowered their asking prices, and their willingness to sell increased [4] - Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and had less procurement of farmers' goods. Due to pre - Spring Festival stocking by merchants, cold - storage trading volume increased [4] - As of December 26th, national cold - storage apple inventory was 702.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.76%. The destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.17% [4] - The market trading logic has shifted to demand. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell may affect the destocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR dropped slightly, while the futures price of butadiene rubber BR rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices rose, and the port price of external butadiene continued to rise. The price of the Thai raw - material market was stable with a slight increase [5] - Globally, natural rubber supply has entered the production - reduction period. In China, the Yunnan production area has completely stopped tapping, the Hainan production area is accelerating the stop of tapping, and the Vietnam production area will gradually stop later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with some plants under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise [5] - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to rise [5] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 54.83 million tons. Before the festival, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber continued to drop to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 4.13 million tons [5] - After the festival, demand is expected to recover, natural rubber supply will decrease, synthetic rubber supply will be stable, natural rubber inventory will continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory will continue to decline, cost support will strengthen, and market sentiment will weaken. It is recommended to wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. Attention should be paid to macro and capital trends [6] - As of January 8, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, an increase of 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory continued to accumulate [6] - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, providing some support for softwood pulp. Recently, the external quotes of softwood and hardwood pulp have increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp based on rigid demand, and the rise of base - paper prices is relatively weak. It is recommended to go long at low prices [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Externally, quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [7] - As of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 5.65 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand has entered the off - season, and the outbound volume has decreased recently [7] - As of January 2nd, the total national port log inventory was 267 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]