国投期货软商品日报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various soft - commodity markets, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices dropped sharply today with a significant reduction in positions, as commodities fell collectively. The recent rally was driven by expectations, while downstream conditions were average. Spot sales were ordinary with a stable - to - weak basis. Although new - cotton production increased substantially, commercial inventories were lower year - on - year, and sales progress was faster, providing strong support for the market. Currently in the off - season, demand remained stable. As of December 25, cumulative lint processing was 669.7 million tons, up 75.8 million tons year - on - year. As of December 15, national cotton commercial inventories were 534.9 million tons, down 1.63 million tons year - on - year. Xinjiang's cotton planting area reduction policy was implemented, but the reduction range was not specified. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials was resilient with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Suggestion: Exit long positions and wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices oscillated. Internationally, the short - term market focus was on the yield forecast gap in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar season, India's production progress was fast with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar output. However, Thailand's production was slow and output was below expectations. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. In December, Guangxi's sugar production and sales both decreased. December single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, down 43.1 million tons year - on - year; sugar sales were 79.54 million tons, down 55.18 million tons year - on - year; industrial inventories were 105.71 million tons, down 6.21 million tons year - on - year. The sales decline was mainly due to strong market bearish sentiment. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season, the production progress was always slow. If production could not increase later, futures prices would rise. Suggestion: Wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices oscillated at high levels. In the spot market, mainstream prices were stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking prices of some soft - semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the producing areas mainly packed their own goods for market, with less procurement of farmers' fruit. Due to merchants starting to stock up for the Spring Festival, cold - storage trading volume increased. As of December 26, national cold - storage apple inventories were 702.1 million tons, down 12.76% year - on - year. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 10.6 million tons, down 14.17% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apples had poor quality but high purchase prices, and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell might affect the destocking speed. Suggestion: Wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices dropped slightly, while butadiene rubber BR futures prices rose slightly. Domestic natural rubber spot prices were stable, synthetic rubber spot prices increased, and the outer - market butadiene port prices continued to rise. Thailand's raw - material market prices were stable with some increases. In terms of supply, global natural rubber supply entered the production - reducing period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan accelerating to stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants was stable, with Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continuing to rise. In terms of demand, last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, and the finished - product inventories of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. In terms of inventory, this week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area increased to 54.83 million tons, with both bonded - area and general - trade inventories increasing. Before the holiday, China's butadiene rubber social inventory decreased to 1.47 million tons, and this week, the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 4.13 million tons. Overall, after the holiday, demand would recover, natural rubber supply would decline, synthetic rubber supply would be stable, natural rubber inventory would continue to accumulate, synthetic rubber inventory would continue to decline, cost support would strengthen, and market sentiment would weaken. Suggestion: Wait and see [5] Pulp - Pulp prices dropped today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space for pulp might be restricted. The focus was on macro and capital trends. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 200.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from the previous period, a 0.5% increase. The inventory continued to accumulate. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support for coniferous pulp. Recently, the outer - market quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp both increased. Paper mills' procurement of pulp was mainly based on rigid demand, and the increase in base - paper prices was relatively weak. Suggestion: Buy on dips [6] Timber - Futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, mainstream quotes were stable. In terms of supply, outer - market quotes decreased, and domestic spot prices were weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 56,500 cubic meters, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. In terms of inventory, as of January 2, the total national port log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, a 5.12% increase. The total national log inventory was relatively low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. Overall, low inventory provided some support for prices. Suggestion: Wait and see [7]