Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging on the trading floor) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment is fluctuating, and different steel - related products have different fundamentals and price trends. Short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and market sentiment, and there may be significant fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production increased slightly, and inventory began to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production continued to increase slightly, and inventory decreased slowly with pressure remaining [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, the reduction in blast furnace production has slowed down significantly, and molten iron production has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, domestic demand was generally weak, and steel exports remained at a high level [2] - The optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has cooled, the futures prices are under pressure to decline, and the fluctuations have intensified significantly. It is expected that there will still be fluctuations in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today, the iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. On the supply side, global shipments declined seasonally, while domestic arrivals increased month - on - month. Considering the strong overseas shipments in the early stage, it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and port inventory continues to increase [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Steel mill profitability has improved recently, and molten iron production has stabilized at a low level, but there will be no obvious resumption of production in the short term. Steel mill inventories of imported ore have increased but are still at a low level, and there is still a certain rigid restocking demand in the future [3] - The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, the fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations in the future [3] Coke - The intraday coke price rose and then declined. The fifth round of price cuts was suspended. Coking profits are average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly. Currently, downstream customers are making small - scale on - demand purchases, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [4] - The coke futures price is at a premium. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price rose and then declined. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the negative pressure on prices decreased slightly. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks [5] - Spot auction transactions were acceptable, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly [5] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low, and the demand for raw materials is still resilient. Although the profit level of steel has been slightly repaired, the pressure on raw material prices is still strong [5] - The coke futures price is at a premium, and the coking coal futures price is at a discount. After the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game on the trading floor has intensified [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday silicomanganese price declined significantly. Driven by the rebound of the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end of silicomanganese pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly, and the inventory of silicomanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday ferrosilicon price declined significantly. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand decreased to more than 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand is still resilient [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution". It is recommended to buy on dips [7]
国投期货黑色金属日报-20260108
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2026-01-08 12:08