2026年牛市展望系列 1：入市增量资金有望超两万亿

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows of incremental funds, primarily from leveraged funds and private equity, while public funds are experiencing net redemptions [1][4] - The current inflow of funds is expected to be mainly from high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents likely becoming the main source of market funds by 2026 as their risk appetite recovers [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the main source of incremental funds in the A-share market will be active funds, with a notable inflow of 4.2 billion yuan from insurance funds and 4 billion yuan from private equity in the first half of the year [2][13] - The inflow of funds in 2025 can be divided into two phases: the first half saw a recovery in the market supported by policies and industry catalysts, while the third quarter experienced a surge in private equity and leveraged funds [2][19] - The sectors that attracted the most incremental funds in the first half of 2025 included technology and dividend sectors, while the third quarter saw significant inflows into non-ferrous metals, electronics, and new energy sectors [2][20] Group 3 - The process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, with overall risk appetite among residents gradually improving [3][32] - Despite signs of recovery in risk appetite, the majority of resident funds have not yet entered the market on a large scale, with many still preferring low-risk investment products [3][36] - The current low expectations for income and housing prices among residents are major factors hindering a broader entry of resident funds into the market [3][41] Group 4 - The expected net inflow of micro funds in 2026 is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from retail investors and insurance funds [4][55] - The structure of incremental funds in 2025 shows a shift compared to 2020, with a greater reliance on leveraged funds and private equity rather than resident funds [4][50] - The anticipated inflow from insurance funds is expected to be around 700 billion yuan, while public and foreign funds are also expected to improve [4][57]