PVC：震荡偏强运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic PVC futures market is in a game period between the weak reality of fundamentals and the strong policy expectations. The supply contraction expectation and the medium - term improvement in exports are the core positive factors, while the off - season demand suppression and high inventory are the main negative factors. It is expected that the domestic PVC futures will maintain a volatile bottom - building trend [2][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - The overall scale of new PVC production capacity in China in 2026 is small, with only the 300,000 - tonne device of Jiaxing Jiahua in trial production, and the industry's capacity expansion cycle may be coming to an end. However, in the short term, there is still supply pressure. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of domestic PVC producers was 78.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.40%. The output of domestic PVC producers that week was 483,900 tonnes, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% and a year - on - year increase of 3.95% [3]. - In the long run, China's PVC capacity is entering a contraction phase. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is investigating 2.85 million tonnes of over - run and 2 million tonnes of long - term idle production capacity. Old devices in Xinjiang, Shandong and other places that have been in operation for more than 20 years are expected to be phased out in the first quarter, and 3 million tonnes of high - cost production capacity are expected to be cleared throughout the year. Overall, the PVC supply side shows a differentiated feature of "short - term high and long - term contraction" [3]. Demand Side - In January 2026, it is the traditional off - season for PVC demand. The low - temperature weather in the north has slowed down construction at construction sites, and the orders of downstream product enterprises are poor, with the operating rate continuing to decline. As of the week of January 2, 2026, the operating rate of domestic PVC downstream product enterprises was 43%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The profile machine - starting rate was 28%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.57%. The pipe machine - starting rate was 30%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.20% and a year - on - year increase of 3.13%. All three are at seasonal lows [5]. - The real estate, as the core consumption area (accounting for 60%), still had a large year - on - year decline in the newly started and under - construction areas from January to November 2025. Although the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities rebounded month - on - month, it was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and it will take time to improve the demand in the real estate chain. However, policy benefits are brewing. The "14th Five - Year Plan" clearly plans major infrastructure projects, and the demand in areas such as municipal pipes and power projects is expected to become a highlight of domestic demand. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will pick up as the temperature rises and projects resume work from February to March [5]. - In terms of exports, PVC has the characteristics of short - term pressure and medium - term improvement. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of PVC was 3.5091 million tonnes, a year - on - year increase of 47.17%. Although there is short - term pressure on exports in January, in the medium and long term, 2 million tonnes of production capacity have been shut down in Europe, Japan, the United States and other regions in 2025, the global supply - demand gap continues to widen, and China's PVC is expected to significantly increase its export volume in 2026 due to its price advantage [5]. Inventory - The high domestic PVC inventory is still the key factor suppressing the continuous rebound of futures prices. As of early January 2026, the domestic PVC social inventory climbed to 1.0612 million tonnes, a week - on - week increase of 0.42% and a year - on - year increase of 31.92%. The inventory of domestic full - sample producers reached 338,300 tonnes, a week - on - week increase of 0.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.50%. In addition, although the futures warehouse receipts have slightly declined from the previous high, they are still at a high level, which will limit the price rebound space in the short term [6].