Guoxin Securities·2026-01-08 12:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the rising prices of refrigerants and the increasing demand for fluorinated liquids driven by advancements in liquid cooling technology for data centers [4][7]. - The long-term outlook for mainstream refrigerants such as R32, R134a, and R125 remains positive due to supply constraints from quota policies, which are expected to support price increases [7][68]. Summary by Sections 1. December Fluorochemical Industry Performance - As of December 31, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.06%, while the fluorochemical index increased by 1.89%, underperforming the broader chemical indices [1][15]. 2. December Refrigerant Market Review - Mainstream refrigerant long-term contract prices are on the rise, with R32 expected to reach 61,200 CNY/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous quarter [2][23]. - R134a prices have increased to 58,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 4.5% month-over-month rise [24]. 3. Liquid Cooling Driving Demand for Fluorinated Liquids and Refrigerants - The shift towards liquid cooling in data centers is expected to significantly increase the demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional air cooling methods become less effective [4][60]. - Companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are highlighted as key players in this market [4][66]. 4. 2026 Refrigerant Quota Announcement - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the 2026 refrigerant quotas, indicating a slight increase in production quotas for R32, R125, and R134a, while R141b's quota has been eliminated [67][70]. - The overall supply constraints are expected to maintain a tight balance in the refrigerant market, supporting price stability [68][72]. 5. Air Conditioning and Export Data Tracking - The production of air conditioners is projected to maintain high levels, with January 2026 production expected to be 7.86 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [3][5]. - Export data shows a mixed trend, with R32 exports increasing by 12% while R22 exports have decreased by 21% [29][33]. 6. Focus on PVDF Price Recovery - The report notes a recovery in PVDF prices due to rising costs and improved supply-demand dynamics, with current prices ranging from 54,000 to 60,000 CNY/ton [4][66].