国投期货有色金属日报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: No rating provided [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: No rating provided [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No rating provided [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Tin: No rating provided [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No rating provided [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Polysilicon: No rating provided [1] Core Views - The report provides daily updates and analysis on various non - ferrous metals, including price movements, inventory changes, and market sentiment. It also offers trading suggestions based on the current market situation for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the Shanghai copper contract increased its positions and the main contract switched to 2603. The Shanghai copper discount widened to 125 yuan, and SMM social inventory increased by 1.96 million tons to 27.38 million tons this week. The previous option strategy of selling 104,000 call options and buying 98,000 put options on the 2602 contract can still be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price declined today. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed to - 150 yuan, - 340 yuan, and - 120 yuan respectively, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. Although the domestic aluminum fundamentals are weak, there is a shortage expectation in 2026. Short - term capital has pushed up the Shanghai aluminum price to a historical high with high volatility, so speculation should be cautious. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum smelters can consider participating in selling hedging. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 was lowered by 200 yuan to 23,100 yuan. Scrap aluminum remained in short supply, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum under macro - drive has been seasonally weaker than in previous years. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained around 95 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina market is in significant surplus. Based on the 5 - dollar reduction in the Guinea first - quarter ore long - term contract price, the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan will drop to around 2,600 yuan. The alumina spot price continues to be under pressure. After the futures price rose driven by the overall non - ferrous market, the basis decreased, and the upward trend is not sustainable [3] Zinc - Intraday, long - position holders reduced their positions at high levels. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 7,751 lots, and the main contract fell 1.36%. The zinc price has not reached the downstream's psychological price, so downstream buyers mainly made just - in - time purchases, and the spot trading remained light. SMM zinc inventory increased to 11.85 million tons. At the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan", there is a strong expectation of advanced consumption in 2026, and demand may not be weak in the off - season. The TC in January further decreased, and the cost support for zinc is still strong. However, the zinc ore is in a production - increasing cycle. Without a significant improvement in actual demand, the Shanghai zinc price will face significant pressure below 24,500 yuan/ton. The short - term Shanghai zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and traders can participate in band trading [4] Aluminum (in the context of lead - related text) - The SMM 1 aluminum discount to the near - month contract was 155 yuan/ton, and it was profitable to deliver for warehouse receipt. SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The import window remained open, and the overseas surplus pressure could still be transmitted to the domestic market. The Shanghai lead price was under pressure and fell back at the 17,800 yuan/ton level, failing to break through the low - level consolidation range. After the profit of secondary lead recovered, production resumed, and the price difference between refined and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton. Secondary aluminum holders sold at a discount, and downstream buyers mainly made just - in - time purchases with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Considering the increase in secondary aluminum tax costs, pay attention to the support at the 17,000 - yuan integer level when the Shanghai aluminum price corrects. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price plummeted, and the market trading was active. The market was in a "buy - on - rise" mode. Upstream steel mills and agents were strongly willing to support the price, and some agents stopped quoting and held back sales. Traders actively sold goods by offering small discounts. Driven by the bullish sentiment, some downstream buyers with rigid demand were forced to enter the market, and the trading volume of 304 - series stainless steel improved. In addition, stainless steel products were re - included in the export license management. Affected by the rush to export, the social inventory decreased rapidly. The high - nickel pig iron price was 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to rebound. The short - term market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The bullish trend stopped, and the nickel market entered a consolidation phase [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin price declined, and the weighted index closed below 350,000 yuan. The domestic spot tin price was 35,050 yuan, with a real - time discount of 670 yuan to the delivery month. The market is concerned about the impact of changes in futures warehouse receipts on spot supply and demand under the background of high positions and high prices. At the same time, Indonesian tin ingot exports in January are characterized by a seasonal off - season. The volatility of Shanghai tin options is at a high level, and the strategy of selling 350,000 - yuan call options can be held until expiration [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience, and the market trading is active. Upstream lithium salt producers still have a mindset of holding back sales, and the volume of spot sales is limited. Some downstream material manufacturers maintain production through long - term contracts and customer - supplied channels, and only a small number of enterprises have rigid - demand purchasing behavior. The rigid - demand purchasing gap has slightly improved spot trading, and the price center has been slowly and continuously rising. The total market inventory decreased by 160 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 900 tons to 39,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 900 tons to 53,000 tons. The overall inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down, mainly because the downstream inventory reduction is slow. Traders still have confidence in holding goods, the inventory in the middle - stream is high, and the spot market has some support. The latest price of Australian ore is 1,765 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price dropped significantly today, mainly dragged down by the sentiment from the polysilicon limit - down. From a fundamental perspective, although the supply side is affected by production cuts in some regions, the January production is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons month - on - month. At the same time, the demand side is also weakening: the organic silicon industry is continuing to reduce emissions, and the operating rate is expected to decline. If the leading polysilicon enterprises in the north further cut production, the inventory accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. Overall, the market is significantly affected by sentiment and the linkage with related products in the short term, and the fundamental support is insufficient. After the sharp decline, the price may have a technical rebound, but under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the overall trend is expected to remain under pressure [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price hit the limit - down today. This is mainly because the regulatory authorities have made it clear that "anti - involution" should be promoted within the framework of marketization and the rule of law. The market's expectation for capacity clearance may shift from organizational coordination to technological iteration and market competition. On the spot side, although the increase in silver costs has driven the industry chain to try to raise prices, due to weak terminal demand and high inventory, high - price transactions are limited. Therefore, the market's expectation for supply - side integration has adjusted, and combined with the current weak fundamentals, the price has significantly corrected. The subsequent market may have a technical rebound, but under the dual constraints of regulatory guidance and fundamentals, the trend of a continuous rebound faces pressure [11]