生猪日报：供应压力增加，现货逐步回落-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The subsequent supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to continue to manifest, with the overall direction of the live pig spot price likely to decline, and the overall upside potential of pig prices is limited due to sufficient supply [3][4] - Live pig futures prices are under downward pressure. In the short - term, prices may be supported, but in the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on prices is obvious, and the futures market will tend to decline [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Today, live pig prices across the country showed a volatile trend. The average spot price was 12.99 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [3] - The number of live pigs sold by large - scale enterprises has increased significantly. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs is generally average, and the secondary fattening has continued to enter the market, but the subsequent number of entrants may decrease. The slaughter weight of live pigs remains high, and the supply of large - weight pigs is relatively large [3] Futures Price - Live pig futures prices are under downward pressure. The recent slowdown in spot price increases and the recovery of slaughter have led to a decline in the futures market. In the short - term, the supply pressure is limited, and prices may be supported, but in the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure is obvious [4] Breeding and Slaughter - The price of piglets this week was 251 yuan, up 24 yuan from last week, and the price of sows was 1554 yuan, up 3 yuan from last week. The spot breeding profit has improved, with self - breeding and self - raising profit at - 34.59 yuan/head, up 95.52 yuan from the previous period, and the profit of purchasing piglets at - 48.35 yuan/head, up 114.45 yuan from the previous period [3] - The daily slaughter volume was 189,578 heads, a decrease of 1486 heads from yesterday. The price difference between different - sized pigs showed some changes, with the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish approach - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [5]