螺纹热卷日报-20260108

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the steel futures market showed a slight decline, and steel procurement was weak. This week, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, and the molten iron output rose due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but hot-rolled coils were still being destocked, with inventory shifting from factory warehouses to social warehouses, and the overall rebar inventory accumulating. Seasonal factors led to a further weakening of the apparent demand for construction steel, and the funds available to downstream construction sites declined. The demand for hot-rolled coils was slightly digested, but steel exports declined in January due to export license issues. On the raw material side, coal mine inventories decreased, and prices soared recently due to market news, driving up steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, providing cost support. The continuous resumption of molten iron production also limited the further rise of steel prices. Therefore, steel prices remained volatile. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the futures market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was priced at 3,290 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,180 yuan (+20 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coils at 3,320 yuan (+20 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coils at 3,220 yuan (+10 yuan) [4] Market Judgments Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: As the futures market corrected, long positions could take profits [6] - Arbitrage: It was recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold short positions on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It was recommended to wait and see [8] Important Information - As of January 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.53%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects was 60.59%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.41 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 54.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The capital availability rate ended a two-week increase and started to decline, mainly due to new projects occupying some funds and the decline in payment collection for existing projects [9] - In December 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China were 76.5 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.19%. The monthly startup rate was 51.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 4.72 percentage points. For excavators, the average monthly working hours were 69.3 hours, and the monthly startup rate was 52.6% [10] Related Attachments - The report includes various charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins of rebar and hot-rolled coils, such as the summary prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, the basis of different contracts in Shanghai, the spreads between different contracts, and the profit margins of different contracts and production processes [15][17][19]