银河期货航运日报-20260108

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The inflection point of spot freight rates is gradually established, and some shipping companies have started to lower the spot quotes for the second half of January. The EC market as a whole has continued to weaken following the spot quotes [3]. - The high point of phased freight rates is gradually emerging. The demand for goods remains high but the growth rate is slowing down. The supply of shipping capacity has changed, and some shipping lines have announced suspension plans. Geopolitical factors may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On January 8, 2026, the closing price of EC2602 was 1706 points, a decrease of 4.11% from the previous trading day. On December 26, 2025, the SCFI European line was quoted at $1690/TEU, a month-on-month increase of 10.24%. The latest SCFIS European line index was 1795.83 points, a month-on-month increase of 3%, slightly lower than expected [3]. - The high point of phased freight rates is gradually emerging. Different shipping companies have different pricing and price adjustment strategies. The demand for goods remains high but the growth rate is slowing down. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in January, February and March 2026 is expected to be 306,000, 252,700 and 288,400 TEUs respectively. CMA has announced a suspension plan for the Spring Festival, with three additional empty ships in February, with an average container capacity of 18,855 TEUs. Geopolitical factors may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see, and pay attention to the rate of price cuts by shipping companies [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread [6]. 2. Industry News - As of January 7, 2026, the European natural gas inventory has dropped to the lowest level since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The current inventory is far below the five - year average, less than 60%, and the EU may face the risk of natural gas shortage [9]. - Zelensky said that the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end in the first half of 2026 [9]. 3. Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - Different futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interest and open interest change rates. For example, EC2602 closed at 1706.0, down 73.1 points or 4.11%, with a trading volume of 27,173.0 hands, a decrease of 37.68% [1]. - The spread between different futures contracts (such as EC04 - EC06, EC02 - EC08) has also changed [1]. Container Freight Rates - Different container freight rates (SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, etc.) have different prices, month - on - month and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European line was at 1795.83 points, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 46.99% [1]. Fuel Costs - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $56.43/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.54%. The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $59.94/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [1].