镍价大幅回调，警惕波动加剧风险

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel's current fundamentals show no marginal improvement, with overall supply-demand expected to remain loose in January and high visible inventories putting pressure on prices [3]. - Indonesia's proposed revision of the nickel ore domestic trade pricing method and reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota have led to significant adjustments in market expectations of nickel costs and balance, providing some support for nickel prices [3]. - The market should be wary of increased price volatility after the previous rapid rally, and short - term investors can consider buying on dips while closely monitoring the actual implementation of relevant Indonesian policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Dynamics and Reasons - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel contract plunged after a previous rapid rally, with the intraday price dropping to 13,380 tons. The LME nickel also declined significantly, with an intraday drop of over 4.5% [2]. - The sharp decline in nickel prices was mainly driven by the overall downturn in the non - ferrous sector, and the weak real - world fundamentals accelerated the decline. As of January 7, LME nickel inventories increased by over 20,000 tons to 275,600 tons, reaching a seven - year high [2]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's policy on revising the domestic trade pricing method and the RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 has supported nickel prices. As of January 8, the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister had not disclosed the specific RKAB amount and said it was still being calculated [2]. Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, China's electrolytic nickel production increased in December, and Indonesia's MHP, nickel ice, and nickel matte production remained high in December, resulting in continued supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, it has entered the traditional off - season. Stainless steel production increased due to margin repair, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. Overall, the fundamentals remain in surplus, with LME nickel inventories increasing by 20,088 tons to 275,600 tons and Shanghai nickel inventories decreasing by 612 tons to 38,800 tons. Global visible inventories are still at a high level [2]. Summary and Strategy - Nickel's current fundamentals have not improved, and the overall supply - demand in January is expected to be loose. High visible inventories will suppress prices, while Indonesian policies will support prices. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies [3]. - The market's expectation of Indonesian policies is still strong. After the previous rapid rally, the market should be wary of increased volatility. Short - term investors can consider buying on dips and focus on the actual implementation of Indonesian policies [3].