垄断风险担忧加剧，今日多晶硅跌停-20260108

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's concern about potential monopoly risks during the polysilicon capacity integration process has intensified, causing the polysilicon futures to hit the daily limit down. In the short - term, prices may decline due to emotional impacts. In the long - term, the process of eliminating backward production capacity will continue, and policy trends and the progress of solving monopoly issues need to be further observed [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - Polysilicon futures significantly corrected, with the main contract price dropping to 53,610 yuan/ton. The market is still digesting the expectation of state reserve purchases. After the exchange restricted liquidity, the open interest of the polysilicon futures has been decreasing, dragging down the market. Discussions around "self - discipline" and "integration" in the polysilicon industry have increased, raising concerns about compliance boundaries and competition sufficiency [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply - demand of polysilicon remains relatively loose. In the supply side, production in Southwest China decreased after entering the dry season, and the domestic polysilicon output in December was below 120,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing production and lightening sales in the first - quarter off - season, and supply may further decline. In the demand side, the output of downstream industries decreased significantly in December and January, and the support from the demand side to the upstream is still limited. Recently, the spot prices of polysilicon have risen. The average transaction price of polysilicon lump - material was 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%, and that of n - type granular silicon was 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5%. It is expected that inventory may accumulate slightly in January [3]. Summary and Strategy - For upstream industry investors, hedging operations can be considered when prices are high. For institutional investors, due to large short - term fluctuations, they can choose to wait and see [4].