国内供应仍显宽松，等待报告指引

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by international trade policies and supply - demand dynamics. The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure, and the domestic soybean and bean -粕 markets are in a state of high inventory and structural shortage expectations. The protein -粕 market will oscillate, with the bean -粕 05 contract ranging from 2700 - 2870 [6]. - The rapeseed -粕 market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly disturbed by news related to imported rapeseed supply. Rapeseed -粕 mainly follows the protein -粕 market trend, with potential for a stronger performance but also risks of mood reversal. The 05 contract is expected to be in the range of 2300 - 2450 [45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean and Bean -粕 Market 3.1.1 International Situation - China maintains a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, and commercial purchases are still difficult. The progress of China's soybean purchases from the US is slower than expected, and the optimistic sentiment for exports is cooling. The focus of the January USDA report is whether US soybean exports will be adjusted downward, which could lead to an increase in the stock - to - consumption ratio. The CBOT soybean futures are oscillating downward [6]. - Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, and harvesting has begun in some areas. There is no weather premium on the futures, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, and the spot supply of bean -粕 from oil mills is still relatively abundant. Downstream feed enterprises have high inventories and limited demand, with average pick - up. Oil mill bean -粕 inventories continue to accumulate and remain at a high level [6]. - In the first quarter, the forward supply gap of imported soybeans in China has been partially repaired, but the soybean purchase plan from the US needs to be observed. The expectation of tightened customs policies for arriving ships has caused temporary supply concerns, but given the high inventories of soybeans and bean -粕, there is a risk of a reversal in market sentiment [6]. 3.1.3 Price and Cost - The USDA's December report predicts that in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production will be 422.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons compared to the previous year; the demand for soybean crushing will be 365.24 million tons, an increase of 7.04 million tons; and the export volume will be 187 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons. The final inventory will be 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons. The supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly [8]. - The price of imported soybeans is affected by the futures price, premium, and shipping costs. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the inverse relationship between the futures price and the premium [17]. 3.1.4 Purchase and Inventory - As of December 30, the purchase progress for the December 2025 shipment was 100%, 99.33% for January 2026, 82.82% for February 2026, and 77.47% for March 2026 [27]. - As of December 26, the oil mill bean -粕 inventory was 116.75 million tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous month and a 47.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The physical inventory of bean -粕 in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, a 13.54% increase from the end of the previous month and an 11.97% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. 3.1.5 Oil Mill Operations - In December 2025, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 9.0675 million tons, a 0.55% increase from the previous month and a 9.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The annual soybean crushing volume in 2025 was 101.728 million tons, a 6.35% increase compared to the previous year [31]. 3.2 Rapeseed -粕 Market 3.2.1 International Situation - Last week, ICE rapeseed futures oscillated at a low level. Trading was light before the New Year's Day holiday. The futures declined slightly due to the pressure of a bumper rapeseed harvest during the week and were supported by the rise in the vegetable oil market on the weekend. The settlement price of the main rapeseed futures contract on the weekend was 603.9 Canadian dollars, a 7.6 - Canadian - dollar decrease from the previous week, a 1.2% decline, and a 20.1 - Canadian - dollar decrease compared to the previous year, a 3.2% decline [45]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Canada's insistence on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has led to no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. There are basically no new purchase orders for Canadian rapeseed, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed -粕 in oil mills are at a low level. Rapeseed crushing plants are mostly shut down. As the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed -粕 in feed decreases, and market trading volume is limited, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [45]. - China is actively seeking alternative imports of rapeseed -粕 from multiple sources, and relevant news will have a significant impact on the futures [45]. 3.2.3 Policy Impact - The preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed maintains a 75.8% deposit for exporters, closing the window for importing Canadian rapeseed. This will significantly increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed, reducing import willingness, tightening the domestic rapeseed industry supply chain, and changing the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the rapeseed -粕 market [46]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - As of the first week, the rapeseed crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed -粕 production was 0 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed -粕 in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and there was no trading in the rapeseed -粕 market [61][64]. - As of the first week, the oil mill rapeseed -粕 inventory was 0 tons, the granular rapeseed -粕 inventory was 16.7 million tons, and the consumption was 0.8 million tons [69]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The bean -粕 05 contract basis was 296 yuan/ton, compared to 311 yuan/ton the previous week. The bean -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 101 yuan/ton, compared to - 106 yuan/ton the previous week [39]. - The rapeseed -粕 05 contract basis was 119 yuan/ton, compared to 93 yuan/ton the previous week. The rapeseed -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 47 yuan/ton, compared to - 59 yuan/ton the previous week [75]. - The soybean oil - to - bean -粕 ratio was 2.85, compared to 2.82 the previous week. The spread between the main contracts of bean -粕 and rapeseed -粕 was 393 yuan/ton, compared to 399 yuan/ton the previous week [82].