银河期货白糖日报-20260108

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and considering the significant decline in commodities today, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] - Domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate, with support from high processing costs and potential upward drive from rising foreign sugar prices, but facing sales pressure during the peak domestic sugar - pressing season and global sugar production increase expectations [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,290, down 3 (-0.06%), with a trading volume of 15,167 (down 3,837) and an open interest of 76,794 (up 909); SR01 closed at 5,300, down 7 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 657 (down 439) and an open interest of 8,782 (down 649); SR05 closed at 5,279, down 2 (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 218,370 (down 13,539) and an open interest of 429,678 (down 10,268) [3] - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in different regions vary, with prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an being 5,390, 5,230, 5,660, 5,370, 5,530, 5,545, and 5,810 respectively. The price changes in Kunming, Wuhan, and Nanning are 10, and the price change in Bayuquan is 5,530. The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Rizhao, and Xi'an are 111, - 49, 381, 91, 266, and 531 respectively [3] - Month - to - Month Spread: SR05 - SR01 spread is - 21 (up 5), SR09 - SR05 spread is 11 (down 1), and SR09 - SR01 spread is - 10 (up 4) [3] - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.04, and a freight of 32.75, the in - quota price is 4,032, the out - of - quota price is 5,123, the spread with Liuzhou is 267, the spread with Rizhao is 422, and the spread with the futures market is 177. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price is 4,078, the out - of - quota price is 5,182, the spread with Liuzhou is 208, the spread with Rizhao is 363, and the spread with the futures market is 118 [3] 2. Market Judgment - Important Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 7, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons (25.35%) compared to the same period last year. The sugar content in cane was 11.54%, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. The sugar - producing rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 0.5673 million tons (27.03%) compared to the same period last year [5] - As of the week of January 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44 (previously 42), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5823 million tons (previously 1.417 million tons), a week - on - week increase of 0.1653 million tons (11.66%) [5] - The Indian government announced a 1.5 - million - ton sugar export quota for the 2025 - 26 sugar - crushing season. If a sugar factory does not want to export according to the quota, it can abandon the quota before March 31, 2026. The government will review the export performance of sugar factories after March 31, 2026, and may re - allocate unused quotas [7] - Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian cane is gradually entering the harvest stage, and the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil is 39.904 million tons, an increase of 0.543 million tons compared to the same period last year. The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the over - expected increase may have a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar prices and the strong performance of commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestically, the current sugar price is low, in the low - price range over the years. After the previous over - expected decline, the short - covering market has been repaired. The high processing cost of domestic sugar (most sugar factories in Guangxi have a cost of over 5,400 yuan/ton) supports the futures market. The upward trend of the US sugar price on the external market has an upward driving force for Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering the peak domestic sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 2025/26 season, there is significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform [8] - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and considering the significant decline in commodities today, the sugar price is expected to oscillate [9] - Arbitrage: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [10] - Options: Sell put options [10] 3. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly sugar inventory, monthly sugar production, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, white sugar basis for different contract months, and price spreads between different contracts [11][15][17]