大类资产配置月报：攻防兼备，择机布局-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1, with a long - position overweight strategy for the stock index. The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026 but could have a rebound after the Spring Festival, with a short - position hedge before the Spring Festival and a long - position underweight after. Commodities should be structurally allocated, with long - position overweight on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities, long - position standard allocation (timing) on black building materials and agricultural products, and short - position standard allocation on crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity Market: In December 2025, the A - share market oscillated upward, switching back to the growth - oriented style. Most primary industry indices rose, with national defense, communications, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and machinery leading the monthly gains [8][10]. - Bond Market: The performance of short - and long - term bonds diverged. Short - term Treasury yields declined while long - term yields increased, and the Treasury term spread widened significantly. By December 31, 2025, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields dropped to 1.3605% and 1.3830% respectively, while the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rose to 1.8473% and 2.2674% [13]. - Commodities: The prices of domestic commodity futures were differentiated, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 28, 2025, the precious metals index soared 14.38%, the metal index rose 6.18%, the industrial products index increased 1.44%, and the agricultural products index slightly declined 0.59% [17]. 2. Outlook and Analysis of Major Asset Classes - Macroeconomic Aspect: Abroad, the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Fed may decrease. Domestically, the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, but a reserve requirement ratio cut is still expected [19][28]. - Equity Assets: In the short - to - medium term, the cross - year market has started, and the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1 2026. In the long - term, the policy and liquidity environment in 2026 are favorable to the market [31][32]. - Bond Assets: The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026, with the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield before the Spring Festival likely between 1.90% - 1.95%. After the Spring Festival, there may be an oversold rebound opportunity [35][36]. - Commodities: The differentiation pattern of commodities will continue. Crude oil may remain weak after a short - term rebound. Industrial metals may face supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural product prices may fluctuate more due to various factors. Precious metals may experience significant short - term fluctuations but maintain an upward long - term trend [37][38]. 3. Allocation Strategies for Major Asset Classes - Domestic Stock Index: In 2026, the equity market should be strategically allocated, with a long - position overweight in January. Focus on industries such as the AI industry chain, leading companies going global, industries with improved supply - demand relationships, and the industrialization of cutting - edge technologies [40]. - Commodities: Increase the weight of commodities in the asset allocation. Overweight precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities; standard - allocate black building materials and agricultural products (timing); and short - allocate crude oil [41][42]. - Treasury Bonds: Hedge with short positions before the Spring Festival and underweight long positions after the Spring Festival. The bond market will remain volatile in 2026 and should be under - allocated [43].