燃料油日报：科威特低硫燃料油发货量回升-20260108

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.38% at RMB 2,437 per ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 2.29% at RMB 2,860 per ton [1] - The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has limited direct impact on the crude oil market, and the medium- and long-term impact is negative. Oil prices remain in a weak oscillation, providing limited impetus for FU and LU [2] - The current fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both bullish and bearish factors, with limited overall contradictions. The crack spread and premium of high-sulfur fuel oil have declined, leading to a marginal improvement in refinery demand. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports have increased recently, but the spot market remains relatively loose [2] - Potential upside risks come from the geopolitical level. If the supply disruption of Venezuelan oil persists, domestic refineries may increase their fuel oil procurement demand. In addition, if the supply in Iran is affected by geopolitical tensions, the impact on the high-sulfur fuel oil market will be more direct [2] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, due to changes in the maintenance status of facilities (Azul and Dangote), there is an expectation of increased supply in Kuwait and Nigeria. According to shipping data, Kuwait's low-sulfur fuel oil shipments in January are expected to reach 330,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 310,000 tons. Meanwhile, Nigeria's shipments in January are expected to reach 140,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons [2] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral to slightly bearish - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral to slightly bearish - Cross-variety: No strategy - Cross-period: Go long on the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 at low prices (positive spread trading) - Spot-future: No strategy - Options: No strategy [3] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [4]