KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-08 14:22Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth, with the domestic semiconductor index outperforming the CSI 300 index, showing a cumulative increase of 54.51% as of October 28, 2025, driven by factors such as national subsidies, AI computing demand, and domestic substitution [16][21]. - The AI chip market in China is projected to grow from 142.54 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,336.79 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.7% from 2025 to 2029, indicating a critical development opportunity for domestic AI chip manufacturers [42][44]. - The global GPU market is expected to grow from $77.39 billion in 2024 to $472.45 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 35.19%, reflecting strong demand for AI computing [37][40]. Group 2 - The domestic AI chip industry is categorized into three stages: the first stage focuses on the self-sufficiency of computing, storage, and power chips; the second stage emphasizes the self-sufficiency of chip manufacturing processes; and the third stage targets the self-sufficiency of foundational hard technologies such as equipment materials and EDA [5][6]. - The demand for AI computing chips is driven by the rapid growth of generative AI applications, with NVIDIA's data center revenue increasing by 69% year-on-year to $44.1 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, highlighting the accelerating demand for AI computing power [37][44]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a significant increase in domestic production capacity, with the domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate expected to rise rapidly, particularly in dry etching and thin film deposition processes [6][15]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the advanced packaging technology, such as CoWoS, is expected to play a crucial role in the evolution of AI computing power, with domestic companies making significant advancements in this area [7][11]. - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a recovery in profitability, with the average gross margin and net profit margin for the semiconductor sector showing improvements in the first half of 2025 [36][34]. - The report highlights the importance of advanced wafer manufacturing as the physical foundation for AI chips, with a long-term demand for advanced foundry services expected to drive growth in this segment [7][11].