2026 年牛市展望系列 1：入市增量资金有望超两万亿

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market will see significant inflows of incremental funds, primarily from leveraged funds and private equity, while public funds are experiencing net redemptions [1][4] - The current inflow of funds is expected to be mainly from high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents likely becoming the main source of market funds by 2026 as their risk appetite recovers [1][3] - The macroeconomic and microeconomic context of 2025 shows similarities to 2020, but the structure of incremental funds differs, leading to an estimated total inflow of 2 trillion yuan in 2026 [1][4] Group 2 - In 2025, the main source of incremental funds in the A-share market will be active funds, with a notable inflow of 4.2 billion yuan from insurance funds and 7 billion yuan from leveraged funds since July [2][19] - The first half of 2025 saw a diverse inflow of funds, with retail investors contributing 240 billion yuan and foreign capital returning with approximately 100 billion yuan [2][13] - The third quarter of 2025 experienced a significant increase in market activity, with private equity funds estimated to have injected around 400 billion yuan into the stock market [2][19] Group 3 - The process of resident funds entering the market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by high-net-worth individuals, as the overall risk appetite among residents remains low [3][36] - Evidence suggests that while some resident funds are entering the market, the majority are still cautious, with a significant portion of funds remaining in low-risk products [3][37] - The willingness of residents to invest in high-risk assets has been gradually increasing, but overall expectations regarding income and housing prices remain low, limiting broader market participation [3][41] Group 4 - The expected net inflow of funds in 2026 is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from retail investors and insurance funds, alongside improvements in public and foreign capital [4][55] - The structure of incremental funds in 2025 shows a shift compared to 2020, with a greater reliance on leveraged and private equity funds rather than resident funds [4][50] - The anticipated inflow from insurance funds is estimated at 700 billion yuan, while public and foreign funds are expected to improve, contributing around 700 billion yuan each [4][57]