金信期货日刊-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Bullish on the coking coal main contract due to cost support, supply contraction, demand and restocking needs, technical and capital resonance, and positive policy expectations [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue to expand upward, and dips are good opportunities for low - level buying [6] - Caution is advised when participating in the gold market due to increased volatility [9] - For iron ore, maintain a low - buying strategy despite supply expansion and weak domestic demand [11][12] - For glass, maintain a low - buying strategy with policy as the main driver [13][14] - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to supply risks and import decline expectations [17] - Pulp futures show a range - bound trend with inventory accumulation [20] 3. Section Summaries View on Coking Coal - Cost strong support: Spot prices are at the coal mine cost line, with some below the import coal cost, forming strong support around 1000 yuan/ton and having sufficient repair momentum [4] - Supply contraction: Safety inspections in major production areas have been upgraded, leading to early shutdowns and overhauls of some coal mines, and a reduction of about 19 million tons in Yulin's production capacity, resulting in a tight supply of high - quality coking coal [4] - Rigid demand and restocking: Steel mills will resume production after maintenance in January, with daily hot metal production expected to rise to around 2.3 million tons. Steel mills' coking coal inventories are at a medium - low level, and there is a clear rigid restocking demand before the Spring Festival [4] - Technical and capital resonance: The price has broken through the previous shock platform, with a MACD golden cross and a long - position arrangement of moving averages. The main contract has increased positions while rising, indicating strong willingness of long - positions to enter the market [4] - Positive policy expectations: The "anti - involution" and capacity optimization of the steel industry are advancing, and macro - level growth stabilization measures are increasing. The 2605 contract reflects the pricing expectation of demand recovery in the second quarter [4] Technical Analysis of Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved a 15 - day consecutive positive trend, with two consecutive doji stars at a high level. Trading volume has not shrunk, and capital turnover is active. Technically, it is a strong adjustment, and it is expected to continue to expand upward [6] Technical Analysis of Gold - The entire precious metals market has increased volatility, so caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9] Technical Analysis of Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, after a breakthrough, it is in a retracement phase, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [11][12] Technical Analysis of Glass - Technically, there was an adjustment today, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has accumulated this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and the "anti - involution" policy for supply - side clearance [13][14] Technical Analysis of Methanol - In terms of imports, some port arrivals have been delayed, most Iranian plants have shut down, and international geopolitical risks have increased, with an expected decline in imports in January. In the downstream olefin sector, some port olefin plants will shut down until January, while new plants are being put into operation in Shandong. Overall, international supply risks have increased, and short - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] Technical Analysis of Pulp - As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.007 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons or 0.5%. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the futures market has shown a range - bound trend [20]