基本?乏善可陈，盘?冲?回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, demand seasonally weakens. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side becomes apparent, and fundamental contradictions start to accumulate. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. The supply - side expectations of coking coal are still volatile, and winter storage support is limited. The glass and soda ash market is suppressed by oversupply. After a weak adjustment, the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from low levels before the Spring Festival, but the upside space is limited by steel mill profits [1][2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Iron Ore: Port inventory continues to accumulate. There are expected disruptions on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need verification. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The daily port trading volume is 103(+42.8) million tons. The price of spot market quotes fell by 3 - 11 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly, while arrivals increased. The iron - making rate of steel mills weakened slightly, and the restocking demand increased but the rhythm was slow [2][8][9] - Scrap Steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is high, and restocking slows down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, but the good electric - furnace profit and high daily consumption support demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate. This week, the average daily arrival volume decreased, and the total daily consumption of the latest sample electric furnaces remained stable at a high level. The inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and restocking slows down [2][10] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter storage and restocking gradually start, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for purchases, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal market. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1480 yuan/ton (+10), and the port basis of the 05 contract is - 115 yuan/ton (+8) [2][12] - Coking Coal: As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1250 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1200 yuan/ton (+93) [2][12][13] Alloys - Silicomanganese: The pattern of loose supply and demand of silicomanganese continues. The upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure for hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton (+100), and the price of 45.0% Australian ore blocks at Tianjin Port is 42 yuan/ton - degree (+0.2) [3][17][18] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not great, but after profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. In an environment of weak supply and demand, the upside space of the futures price should be viewed with caution. The ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5370 yuan/ton (0), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is 16750 yuan/ton (+400) [3][19] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expected disruptions in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1020 yuan/ton (+10), and the national average price is 1086 yuan/ton (+5) [3][14] - Soda Ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton (-) [3][17] Other Information - Steel: The inventory begins to accumulate, and the futures price falls from a high level. The spot market trading volume weakens. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3290 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3270 (-10) yuan/ton. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increases. The demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the overall steel inventory stops falling and rebounds [8] - Commodity Index: On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 1.06% to 2380.19, the commodity 20 index decreased by 1.00% to 2717.76, and the industrial product index decreased by 1.19% to 2317.04. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.69% on that day, increased by 2.50% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.93% in the past month, and increased by 2.50% since the beginning of the year [106][107][109]