中国期货每日简报-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On January 8, equity index futures diverged, CGB futures rose, and most commodities declined, with PS and EC leading the losses [2][11] - The supply - demand balance for polysilicon remains relatively loose, and the price trend is in a tug - of - war between weak fundamentals and industry price - supporting actions [18][19] - Platinum prices were pressured by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate volatility. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [24][26] - Palladium supply is disrupted by the Russian geopolitical issue, and although long - term supply - demand eases, short - term prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 8, in equity index futures, IM rose 0.7% while IF dropped 0.7%; in CGB, TL rose 0.37% and T rose 0.15% [11] - Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Coking Coal (up 4.8% with open interest down 1.5% month - on - month), Glass (up 2.6% with open interest up 6.4% month - on - month), and Coke (up 2.6% with open interest down 1.3% month - on - month) [12][13] - The top three losers were Polysilicon (down 9.0% with open interest dropping 14.4% month - on - month), SCFIS（Europe）(down 9.0% with open interest down 8.3% month - on - month), and Platinum (down 6.7% with open interest decreasing 2.4% month - on - month) [13][14] 1.2 Daily Dropped 1.2.1 Poly - Silicon - On January 8, Poly - Silicon dropped 9.0% to 53610 yuan per ton. Futures fell sharply with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit down in the afternoon [17][19] - The supply - demand balance is loose, but both upstream and downstream have strong price - supporting willingness. Supply may adjust with demand, and demand from the downstream provides limited support [18][19] 1.2.2 Platinum - On January 8, Platinum dropped by 6.7% to 575 yuan per gram [23][26] - Affected by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, the precious metals sector retreated, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate price volatility. The price spread between domestic and international markets has narrowed [24][26] - The supply side in South Africa faces risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion phase with multiple growth drivers [25][26] 1.2.3 Palladium - On January 8, Palladium dropped by 3.6% to 460.7 yuan per gram [29][31] - The Russian geopolitical issue disrupts supply, and demand is under structural pressure. Short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM will assess whether Meta's acquisition of Manus complies with relevant Chinese laws and regulations on export control, technology import and export, and overseas investment [37][39] - MFA stated that the US arbitrary seizure of foreign vessels on the high seas seriously violates international law [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - In 2025, China's national futures market recorded a cumulative trading volume of 9.074 billion lots and a cumulative turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, representing year - on - year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively [40][41]