政策预期反复，多晶硅领跌新能源金属

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, due to the repeated policy expectations, the trends of new energy metals are diverging, with silicon materials experiencing a sharp decline. Long - term supply contraction of silicon is expected, and the long - term supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [2] - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has cooled, and the silicon price has dropped significantly. The price of polysilicon continues to be highly volatile due to repeated policy expectations. The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has weakened, and the lithium price is oscillating at a high level [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has cooled, and the silicon price has dropped significantly, with an expected oscillating trend [3][6] - Information Analysis: As of January 8, the spot prices of industrial silicon were stable. The domestic inventory decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, with market inventory down 0.5% and factory inventory down 1.8%. In December 2025, domestic monthly production was 39.7 tons, down 1.2% month - on - month but up 19.8% year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative production was 426.8 tons, down 12.9% year - on - year. In November, exports were 54,888 tons, up 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative exports were 660,000 tons, down 0.8% year - on - year. In November, new photovoltaic installations were 22GW, up 75% month - on - month but down 12% year - on - year. From January to November, cumulative new installations were 275GW, up 33% year - on - year. Shaanxi plans to implement a differential electricity price policy for industrial silicon enterprises from July 1, 2026 [6] - Main Logic: On the supply side, some northern silicon plants may stop production for maintenance in January, and the supply pressure from the northwest may ease slightly. The southwest is in a dry season, and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan have dropped. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. The industry inventory has slightly increased, and the overall inventory is under pressure. The supply pressure has been partially relieved, but the demand has also weakened, and the fundamentals remain weak [6] Polysilicon - Viewpoint: Policy expectations are repeated, and the polysilicon price continues to be highly volatile, with an expected oscillating trend [3][6] - Information Analysis: In the week of January 8, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was 59,200 yuan/ton, up 9.83% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 50 to 4,390. In November 2025, the export volume was about 3,230 tons, down 18% year - on - year; from January to November, the cumulative export volume was 23,445 tons, down 32% year - on - year. The import volume in November was about 1,055 tons, down 62% year - on - year; from January to November, the cumulative import volume was 17,178 tons, down 53% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the new domestic photovoltaic installation capacity was 274.89GW, up 33% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands [6][7][8] - Main Logic: The concern about polysilicon antitrust has increased, and the price has dropped significantly. In the dry season, the production in the southwest has decreased. The photovoltaic installation growth rate was high in the first five months but declined in the second half of the year, and the demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. The demand has declined marginally, and the weak fundamentals remain unchanged, so the price may be under pressure [10] Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: Market sentiment has weakened, and the lithium price is oscillating at a high level, with an expected slightly strong oscillating trend [3][6] - Information Analysis: On January 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.9% to 145,000 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 25,949 to 989,870. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of spodumene concentrate increased by 30 dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 590 to 25,770. The weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, and the inventory increased by 337 tons to 109,972 tons, with different changes in different links [11] - Main Logic: The current demand for lithium carbonate has weakened marginally, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the supply remains high. The market is optimistic about January's demand. The new policy may affect the short - term supply release, and geopolitical issues also pose challenges to supply. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the long - term expectation is good, with frequent supply disturbances. The price is expected to be slightly strong in oscillation. It is not advisable to chase the high price, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12] 2.行情监测 - Industrial Silicon: Not provided with specific content - Polysilicon: Not provided with specific content - Lithium Carbonate: Not provided with specific content 3.中信期货商品指数 2026 - 01 - 08 - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index was 2,380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2,717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2,317.04, down 1.19% [54] - New Energy Commodity Index: On January 8, 2026, the index was 535.38, with a daily decline of 2.75%, a 5 - day increase of 5.04%, a one - month increase of 23.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.04% [56]