铂钯波动加剧，短线维持谨慎

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - On January 8, 2026, due to factors such as profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment of silver - related trading rules, the precious metals sector declined, with platinum and palladium prices under pressure. The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 575 yuan/gram, down 6.72%, and the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 460.7 yuan/gram, down 3.57% [2]. - The overall outlook for platinum and palladium prices is to fluctuate strongly, but short - term price volatility has intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and platinum was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 8, the premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 18.5 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, expanding demand in jewelry and investment, and the "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - Outlook: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term prices may continue to have wide - range fluctuations. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [3]. Palladium - Main Logic: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle provides some support for the bottom of palladium prices [4]. - Outlook: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, price fluctuations have intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [4]. Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of the中信期货 commodity index was 2380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19% [48]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [50].