市场乐观情绪快速降温，基本金属大幅调整

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled rapidly, leading to significant adjustments in base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the real demand is weak, but the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin can be continued to be monitored. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin persist. The supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Information Analysis: The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized optimizing copper smelting capacity. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term contract processing fee was set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month and 7.5% year - on - year, with a cumulative increase of 11.38% from January to December. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will have a strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7][8]. - Main Logic: The Fed's restart of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion support copper prices. However, the short - term market sentiment has cooled. Copper supply disruptions continue to intensify, and the supply is expected to tighten. The smelting supply is expected to shrink, while the demand is weak in the short term but may tighten in the long term [8]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8]. Alumina - Information Analysis: On January 8, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with some remaining flat and some declining. The alumina warehouse receipts were 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - Main Logic: The recent macro sentiment has magnified the price fluctuations. The high - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The inventory is still accumulating, and the cost support is average. The price is at the bottom and fluctuating, but the price volatility may increase [9]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is low. Alumina is expected to maintain a volatile trend [9]. Aluminum - Information Analysis: On January 8, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum - for - copper" standard implementation work, and Henan Hengkang Aluminum transferred its production capacity [10][11]. - Main Logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic operating capacity and start - up rate are high, but the overseas supply has constraints. The high - level aluminum price has suppressed demand in the short term, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term macro - outlook and supply - demand expectations support the price [11]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the price center may rise in the medium term [11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - Information Analysis: On January 8, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [13]. - Main Logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortage and profit inversion, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement in the short term and may improve marginally in the medium term. The inventory has a slight decline in the social inventory but an increase in the warehouse receipt inventory [13]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [13]. Zinc - Information Analysis: On January 8, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different. As of January 8, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [14][15]. - Main Logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The zinc price may be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [15]. - Outlook: The zinc price is expected to be volatile [15][16]. Lead - Information Analysis: On January 8, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Lead increased. After the New Year's Day holiday, the upstream and downstream of the lead industry chain resumed trading, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing [17]. - Main Logic: The spot premium increased, and the supply decreased due to factors such as profit narrowing and environmental protection. The demand from the electric bicycle sector weakened, while that from the automotive battery sector improved, but the overall demand is in a downward trend [17]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to be volatile [18]. Nickel - Information Analysis: On January 8, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory increased. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister did not disclose the specific nickel ore quota. The price of sulfur in some regions increased. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota to match the downstream demand [18][19]. - Main Logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in an oversupply situation. The Indonesian nickel ore quota is expected to be unstable, and the actual implementation needs to be monitored [20]. - Outlook: The nickel price is expected to be volatile, and the Indonesian policy changes need to be continuously tracked [20]. Stainless Steel - Information Analysis: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was - 75 yuan/ton. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota [21]. - Main Logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported, but the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [21]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile, and the Indonesian policy changes need to be continuously tracked [22]. Tin - Information Analysis: On January 8, the London tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai tin positions decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [24]. - Main Logic: The tin supply is facing problems such as production restrictions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. The supply is expected to tighten. The demand is expected to increase due to factors such as the semiconductor industry's high growth and the need for inventory reconstruction [24]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased. The commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2773.31, with a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [151][152][154].