Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report Core Views - Based on the increasing domestic policy expectations, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - term over - allocation of stock index and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) is recommended. Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and over - allocated at low prices after volatility stabilizes. The bond market can focus on the bull - steepening opportunity under the easing expectation, but the odds are limited, and it is generally recommended to maintain a standard allocation. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well under macro and industrial support, black commodities return to a weakening range after the rebound driven by winter storage, and crude oil is generally range - bound and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6] Summary by Directory Financial Market - Stock Index Futures: Double - factor boost to the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [7] - Stock Index Options: Use options for covered call writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on options market liquidity [7] - Treasury Bond Futures: Long - term sentiment remains weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [7] Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [7] Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The near - month shipments before the Spring Festival provide support, and the far - month focuses on the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the shipping companies' resumption plans in 2026, the freight rates of long - term contracts at the end of the year, and the support of the shippers' pre - Spring Festival shipments to the freight rates [7] Black Building Materials - Steel Products: Supported by cost and sentiment, the futures price shows a strong performance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [7] - Iron Ore: The futures and spot prices have risen significantly, but port transactions have weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, port inventory changes, and policy - level actions [7] - Coke: The futures price has risen sharply, boosting market sentiment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7] - Coking Coal: The daily trading limit was reached, and the auction was slightly better. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The follow - up of transactions is still insufficient, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of manufacturers. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [7] - Manganese Silicon: It follows the strong trend of the sector, but be cautious about chasing the rise due to loose supply - demand. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [7] - Glass: The futures price has rebounded significantly, showing a positive feedback between futures and spot. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [7] - Soda Ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and sentiment drives valuation repair. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is soda ash inventory [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices are in a high - level volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7] - Alumina: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected ore resumption, more - than - expected electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [7] - Aluminum: The Mozal aluminum plant faces shutdown, and aluminum prices are in a high - level volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7] - Zinc: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [7] - Lead: The downstream's willingness to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown of battery exports [7] - Nickel: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, leading to a rebound in nickel prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [7] - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [7] - Tin: The downstream's rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are in a slightly strong volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the expectations of Wa State's resumption and demand improvement [7] - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected supply resumption and policy changes [7] - Polysilicon: The expectation of state reserve purchase continues to ferment, and polysilicon prices remain highly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected supply resumption and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [7] - Lithium Carbonate: Inventory destocking slows down, and lithium prices are under pressure in a volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices remain range - bound. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the OPEC+ production policy and geopolitical situations [9] - LPG: The strong reality may weaken, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [9] - Asphalt: The US is dealing with the sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil, and asphalt futures prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [9] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The situation in Venezuela is under control, and fuel oil futures prices decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are in a volatile downward trend. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is crude oil prices [9] - Methanol: Coastal inventory accumulation slows down, and methanol is expected to be stable and slightly strong under the expectation of destocking. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are macro - energy factors and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [9] - Urea: New orders drive the price close to the resistance level, and urea is considered in a volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial reserves [9] - Ethylene Glycol: The general rise in the coal - chemical sector boosts the atmosphere, but the increase is limited due to fundamental pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the fluctuations of coal and oil prices and the port inventory rhythm [9] - PX: The sector sentiment is positive, and downstream demand still provides support, maintaining a range - bound consolidation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and disturbances in refining and chemical plants [9] - PTA: Cost guidance is limited, but the enthusiastic sentiment of chemical products supports the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [9] - Short - Fiber: Cost provides some support, but demand sustainability is insufficient, and profits are under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn factories and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [9] - Bottle Chips: More device maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and sea - freight rates [9] - Propylene: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9] - PP: The coal price indirectly boosts, but the basis support is limited, and the upside space is cautious. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and international macro - factors [9] - Plastic: The basis is weak, and the upside space is cautious. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and international macro - factors [9] - Styrene: Driven by exports and positive commodity sentiment, styrene is in a relatively strong volatile range recently. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9] - PVC: Supply disruptions occur frequently, and be cautiously optimistic. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [9] - Caustic Soda: The market sentiment is positive, driving the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [9] - Oils and Fats: Supply - side news disturbs, and the trends of oils and fats are slightly different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9] - Protein Meal: The market trading is hot, and the two types of meal continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9] - Corn/Starch: The rotation of corn reserves is sold at a premium, and the futures price strengthens again. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are demand, macro - factors, and weather [9] - Pigs: The rotation of pork reserves leads to a narrow - range volatile pig price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9] Agriculture - Natural Rubber: Rubber prices maintain an upward trend. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9] - Synthetic Rubber: The upward logic remains unchanged, and the futures price is strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key point to watch is significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9] - Cotton: The position continues to increase, and the price rises. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are production and demand [9] - Sugar: Sugar prices are volatile, and there is still pressure in the future. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the key points to watch are imports and Northern Hemisphere production [9] - Pulp: After rising, it falls back, and pulp prices continue to be volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [9] - Offset Paper: The fundamentals change little, and the futures price is in a high - level volatile range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operation dynamics [9] - Logs: The market warms up, and logs follow the strong trend of the black sector. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are shipment and dispatch volumes [9]
中信期货晨报：商品期市收盘多数下跌，新能源材料跌幅居前-20260109
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2026-01-09 01:00