贵属策略报：贵?属延续回调，关注?农数据指引

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals continued to correct for the second day, with silver experiencing a more significant decline. The previous overheated market cooled down due to factors such as profit - taking by funds, commodity index rebalancing, and increased exchange supervision. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation with limited downside space, while silver has greater short - term volatility risks [1]. - The US economic data has been weakening. The December PMI weakened, and the number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The non - farm payroll data to be released this Friday is a crucial variable [1]. - In the long - term, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of gold and silver prices. The expected economic cycle shift to a mild recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Key Information - In October, the US wholesale sales monthly rate slowed down, and the import volume decreased. The number of Challenger job cuts in December was the lowest since July 2024 [2]. - In November, the Eurozone PPI monthly rate exceeded expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was better than expected and the previous value. In December, consumer confidence and industrial sentiment improved, while economic sentiment weakened [2]. - On January 8th, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the deployment of Western troops and military facilities in Ukraine would be regarded as an intervention threatening security, and they would be considered legitimate combat targets [2]. - On January 8th, Trump announced that he would request Congress to allocate $1.5 trillion for the military budget in the 2027 fiscal year, a more than 50% increase from this year [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: The intraday price declined again. The main reason was the short - term selling pressure caused by the commodity index rebalancing from January 9 - 15, during which the gold allocation ratio would be reduced from 20% to 14.9%. However, factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical tensions, and bets on Fed rate cuts continued to provide support. In the short - term, four factors should be focused on, and in the quarter from the nomination to the assumption of office of the Fed chairman, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][8]. - Silver: The intraday price continued to decline significantly. It was suppressed by multiple factors such as the selling of silver futures due to commodity index rebalancing, increased supervision by domestic and foreign exchanges, and the cooling of speculative sentiment. The short - term volatility risk of silver should be vigilant, and the silver rental rate has fallen from a high level, alleviating the squeeze risk [8]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 1.06%, 1.00%, and 1.19% respectively [50]. - The precious metal index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.39%, a 5 - day increase of 3.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.94% [52].