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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in a narrow range. Currently, the economic expectation difference favors the RMB, the Sino-US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, with the weakening of the US dollar and the USD/RMB exchange rate falling below 7.0, the exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue, and the 6.95 level will be repeatedly tested [31][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - Price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/RMB option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end [4] - The negative adjustment range of the counter - cyclical factor has significantly narrowed, and the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has widened [8] 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The central bank's key work in 2026 includes flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and continuing to optimize the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanism arrangements [27] 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro - Economy - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on December 31 was 872.8 billion (previous value: 801.5 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion, a decrease of 65.6 billion. The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [15] - The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the 11 - month CPI increase was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The economic expectation has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [17] - The Chinese economy has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between the fundamentals and sentiment has widened [21] 3.2.2 Core Charts - In the US, employment authority has declined, inflation in November supported subsequent interest rate cuts, and the economic expectation has been revised upwards [17] 3.2.3 Economic - In the US in December, imports, new orders, and inventory made negative contributions, while output and prices made positive contributions [18] 3.2.4 Macro - Economy (China) - China's manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, rising 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and rising to the expansion range for the first time since April, indicating an improvement in manufacturing production and operation activities. Production and demand have rebounded simultaneously, and domestic demand is stronger than external demand [26] 3.2.5 Overall View - The RMB exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue [31] 3.2.6 Macro - Economy (2026 Scenario Deduction) - Throughout 2026, there will be multiple important time points related to policy, inventory cycles, etc., including Fed meetings, government work reports, and US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economic and policy environment [34]