铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Governor Milan indicates about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026, and CME rate futures price in two rate cuts in June and September. The US labor market shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims low but continuing claims rising. The dollar index rebounds, and metal prices adjust for two consecutive days. In China, January economic data is in a vacuum, and the A - share market is in a structural game phase [2]. - Precious metals face increased adjustment pressure due to regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3][4]. - Copper prices are under short - term pressure from long - position profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend. Supply disruptions in Chile and inventory changes are key factors [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment as funds flow out and inventory accumulates. Alumina and cast aluminum are also adjusting in line with the overall market [7][8][11]. - Zinc, lead, and tin prices are adjusting due to factors such as market caution before non - farm data, changes in environmental policies, and profit - taking by funds [12][14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices decline as the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations [17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, demand seasonality, and supply trends. Double - coking prices are influenced by production news and market sentiment [18][19][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices show different trends. Rapeseed meal drops significantly, and soybean meal returns to a volatile state, influenced by export data, weather, and trade relations [22][23]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range. Factors include Indonesia's bio - diesel policies, potential export tax hikes, and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - Overseas: Fed Governor Milan says current rates are above the neutral level and restrictive. There's about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026. Initial jobless claims are at a historical low, but continuing claims are rising. The dollar index rises to 98.9, and metal prices adjust for two days, with precious metals relatively resilient and oil prices rebounding. - Domestic: January economic data and policies have limited impact on the market. The A - share market is in a structural game, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down at 4083 points, and a structural differentiation among broad - based indices. The trading volume drops slightly to 2.83 trillion, and over 3730 stocks close higher [2]. Precious Metals - During Thursday's trading, precious metal prices are mixed. COMEX gold futures rise 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments put pressure on gold and silver prices. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing from January 8 - 14 will bring selling pressure on precious metals, especially silver, increasing short - term adjustment pressure [4]. Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper futures continue to decline, and LME copper adjusts to around $12,700. The domestic spot market is quiet, and the LME inventory drops to 141,000 tons while the COMEX inventory rises to 515,000 tons. The market expects about two rate cuts in 2026. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the plant's operation capacity is only 30% of normal. After reaching a high, copper prices are under short - term pressure from profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend [5][6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum futures close at 23,765 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. LME aluminum closes at $3088.5 per ton, up 0.16%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, and due to high prices and the off - season, terminal demand is suppressed. With the outflow of funds, the market is dominated by fundamentals, and aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment [7][8]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures close at 2863 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The spot - futures price difference is large, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The increase in futures prices may lead to more imports and delay domestic production cuts. Alumina prices are expected to adjust following the overall market [9][10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures close at 22,585 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and prices follow the trend of aluminum. With market enthusiasm cooling and long - position profit - taking, cast aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, Shanghai zinc futures continue to adjust. As zinc ingots arrive, market supply increases, but downstream consumption is poor in the off - season. The social inventory rises slightly. The market is cautious before the non - farm data, and zinc prices are expected to adjust in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, Shanghai lead futures decline. After the environmental control in Anhui is lifted, some recycled lead smelters resume production, but the supply increase is limited. The social inventory rises slightly but remains below 20,000 tons. With weak consumption in the off - season, lead prices are expected to be weak due to the outflow of funds [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, Shanghai tin futures adjust. Before the release of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is nervous, and some funds take profits. The fundamentals change little, with slow recovery of tin mines and uncertain production in major producing countries. Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon futures slightly rebound. The supply side shows a marginal contraction, and the demand side is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The anti - involution policy falls short of expectations, and industrial silicon prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures decline. The supply of five major steel products increases slightly, and the total inventory rises. The consumption of building materials drops significantly, and the market is expected to return to a volatile mode. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures adjust. The supply is abundant as overseas miners increase shipments at the year - end, and port inventories accumulate. Demand is weak with low blast furnace operating rates. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18][19][20]. Double - Coking - On Thursday, double - coking futures rise and then fall. Mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have not received official notices of capacity reduction. With increased domestic coal production and high import inventories, and high inventory pressure in the downstream off - season, the price increase space is limited. Prices are mainly driven by short - term market sentiment [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal 05 contract closes down 0.32% at 2782 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 05 contract closes down 1.71% at 2358 yuan/ton. Brazil's January soybean export is expected to reach 2.4 million tons. The US soybean export sales decline. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations and good weather in South America, rapeseed meal drops, and soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil 05 contract closes up 1.13% at 8612 yuan/ton. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil biodiesel consumption increases by 7.6%, and it plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year. There are also plans to increase export taxes. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakens, and palm oil is expected to trade in a range [24][25].