宝城期货资讯早班车-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is facing various uncertainties and changes, with different trends in different sectors. The U.S. economy shows signs of a slowdown in growth momentum, while China's economy is expected to continue to recover, with consumption as the main driving force. The bond market is affected by policy and economic factors, and long - term bond yields may show a "first down then up" trend. The commodity market also has different performances in different varieties, such as the recovery of the lithium - battery industry and the rise of the black - series commodities [27]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, the U.S. real GDP had a quarterly - on - quarterly annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding market expectations. The main reasons were the better - than - expected performance of household consumption and net exports. However, the resilience of business investment showed signs of weakening. Considering the impact of the government shutdown on Q4 GDP and the slowdown of the overall economic growth momentum, Q4 real GDP growth is expected to decline compared to Q3 [27]. - In China, in November 2025, indicators such as CPI, PPI, and social financing scale showed different trends. For example, CPI increased year - on - year, while PPI decreased year - on - year. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment decreased, and the growth rate of social consumption showed a certain degree of stability [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's export control of dual - use items to Japan aims to stop Japan's "remilitarization" and nuclear - possession attempts, and civilian trade will not be affected [2]. - On January 8, 2026, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis. Among them, spot prices of nickel, tin, and cotton had the largest premiums over futures, while butadiene rubber, apples, and strong wheat had the largest discounts [2]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange imposed a 3 - month trading restriction on 10 clients suspected of violating regulations in lithium carbonate futures trading [2]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit of the thermal coal 2701 contract and set a trading limit for non - futures company members and clients [3]. - In December 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased significantly year - on - year. The annual cumulative volume and turnover also showed growth [3]. - CME Group raised the performance margin of precious metals and lowered that of most natural gas contracts [3]. - The European natural gas and power trading market is about to reform, and ICE plans to extend the trading hours of relevant contracts to 22 hours a day [4]. Metals - After two years of adjustment, the lithium - battery industry is entering a new development stage, with a cyclical recovery covering the entire chain from lithium mines to materials to batteries [5]. - Gold investment remains popular. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China will raise the risk access level of personal gold accumulation business from January 12. Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds [5]. - In 2025, global gold ETFs had a record - high annual capital inflow, with North America leading the way. The total asset management scale and holdings of gold ETFs more than doubled [5]. - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of zinc, nickel, and tin in the London Metal Exchange increased, while that of lead, copper, and aluminum decreased [6]. - The position of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased, and the silver inventory in the London vault also increased in December 2025 [7]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - At the beginning of 2026, the black - series commodities in the commodity market rose, with the prices of coking coal and coke futures rising significantly. The spot market procurement sentiment also increased [8]. - Indonesia may approve a coal production quota of about 600 million tons in 2026 and adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand. The domestic nickel ore demand of Indonesian smelters is expected to increase [8]. - The U.S. government is considering investing in Amaroq's key mineral mining project in Greenland [8]. Energy and Chemicals - China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Aviation Fuel Group will be restructured, aiming to reduce costs and promote high - quality development of the industrial chain [9]. - The market regulatory authority has interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly behavior [9]. - The U.S. is strengthening sanctions against Russia, and China's normal economic and trade energy cooperation with Russia should not be interfered with [9]. - The U.S. has different policies towards Venezuela, including supervision, partial sanctions lifting, and aiming to increase Venezuela's oil production [10][11]. - As of January 2, 2025, the U.S. weekly natural gas inventory decreased more than expected [11]. Agricultural Products - Due to the decline in export sales reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the trends of grain futures were different. Corn and soybean net exports decreased, while wheat exports increased [12]. - Brazil is expected to export 2.4 million tons of soybeans in January 2026, higher than the same period last year [12]. - The market is bearish on the future price of Japanese rice, with the 3 - month expected index reaching the lowest level since September 2021 [12]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On January 8, 2026, the central bank conducted 9.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.9 billion yuan [13]. Important News - The Political Bureau Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to achieve a good start in 2026 and strengthen Party building [14]. - The Ministry of Commerce will assess and investigate Meta's acquisition of the artificial intelligence platform Manus and explained the export control of dual - use items to Japan [14]. - The deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance welcomed the London Stock Exchange Group to deepen cooperation with China [14]. - In December 2025, China's consumer market grew steadily, and high - value product exports continued to accelerate. During the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, consumer spending increased significantly [15]. - In the first quarter of 2026, local governments plan to issue more than 2 trillion yuan of local bonds, mainly for new infrastructure and other projects to boost investment and the economy [16]. - The market regulatory authority has interviewed the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six polysilicon leading enterprises to prevent monopoly behavior [17]. - The four - department joint meeting pointed out the need to regulate the power and energy - storage battery industry to prevent over - capacity [17]. - In 2025, the trading volume and net financing of debt financing instruments supported by the Dealer Association exceeded 60% of the corporate credit bond market, and the outstanding scale increased by 10% year - on - year [17]. - In 2025, 23 insurance companies issued bonds worth 104.2 billion yuan, mainly due to capital replenishment needs and lower borrowing costs [17]. - JD Group is considering issuing dim - sum bonds with a potential scale of about 10 billion yuan [18]. - Yu Liang resigned from Vanke after 35 years [18]. - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds [18]. - The U.S. Congress passed three government appropriation bills, moving forward to avoid a government shutdown [19]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary and Fed officials have different views on interest - rate trends, with expectations of interest - rate cuts in 2026 [19]. - Many bond - related events occurred, including the resumption of trading of some bonds, debt defaults, and credit - rating adjustments [20]. Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China has improved, with bond yields generally falling, and bond futures rising. The capital market is relatively loose [21]. - The exchange - traded bond market had different performances for different bonds, with Vanke bonds generally rising [22]. - The convertible bond market also had different trends, with some bonds rising and some falling [22]. - Most money - market interest rates rose, and different bond - issuing institutions had different bid - winning yields and multiples [23][24]. - European and U.S. bond yields showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, while the central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated slightly. The U.S. dollar index rose, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [26]. Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities expects the U.S. real GDP growth in Q4 2025 to decline compared to Q3, and in China, consumption will continue to recover moderately, and long - term bond yields may show a "first down then up" trend [27]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the bond market is constrained by the "impossible triangle," and the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity after the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is digested, possibly in the second half of Q1 2026 [27]. Stock Market News - The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly falling but still having 15 consecutive positive lines. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell, while the Wind All - A Index rose. The trading volume was 2.83 trillion yuan. Some themes such as commercial space, brain - computer interface, and nuclear fusion were active, while the large - finance and non - ferrous metals sectors were weak [30]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all falling. The "world's first large - model stock" Zhipu rose more than 13% on its first - listing day. Southbound funds had a net selling of 4.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, while Xiaomi Group received a net purchase [30]. - As of January 7, 2026, the margin trading balance in the A - share market exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching a record high [31].