格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyester chip in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating". [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester chip price will follow the raw materials to fluctuate in the short - term, and the reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5950 - 6180 yuan/ton. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the main price of polyester chips dropped by 48 yuan to 5996 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade polyester chips was 6030 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of South China polyester chips was 6090 yuan/ton (+0). Long - position holdings increased by 522 lots to 60,700 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 121 lots to 62,600 lots. [2] 3.2 Important Information - Supply, Cost and Profit: This week, the domestic polyester chip production was 335,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The weekly average production capacity utilization rate of polyester chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31. The production cost was 5623 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. [2] - Export: In November 2025, China's polyester chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons. [2] - Production in December 2025: The output of China's polyester chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The production capacity utilization rate was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] - Oil Price: Geopolitical situations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran remain uncertain. The international oil price rose. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 02 rose 1.77 dollars/barrel to 57.76 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. ICE Brent oil futures contract 03 rose 2.03 dollars/barrel to 61.99 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. China INE crude oil futures contract 2602 fell 6.8 to 418 yuan/ton and then rose 6.6 to 424.6 yuan/ton in the night session. [2] - Military News: According to the U.S. "The War Zone" website on January 5th, a large number of U.S. military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, which triggered speculation about possible special operations in the region. [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The U.S. attacked Venezuela, but the Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected for the time being. The medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase after the U.S. "takeover", which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of polyester chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. [2]