格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260109

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The urea price will oscillate in the short - term, and the reference range for the 05 contract is 1720 - 1810 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 8 yuan to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1750 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 12,274 lots to 227,000 lots, and short positions increased by 4,253 lots to 246,600 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 204,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous working day and 279,000 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate is 83.28%, a 5.81% increase from 77.47% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a 0.29% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory at urea ports is 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.7%, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine is 58.5%, a 3.1% month - on - month decrease [1] - Indian Tender: On January 2nd, India's NFL urea import tender received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, with CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1,107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - International Event: On January 3rd, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The same day, a US official said that Maduro was captured by members of the US military's Delta Force in the early morning of January 3rd [1] Market Logic - This week, the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was 1680 - 1700 yuan/ton. The release of the Indian tender price is beneficial to the international market, but there is no clear news about the new domestic export quota [1] Trading Strategy - Take profits on long positions when the price is high [1]