银河期货每日早盘观察-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core Viewpoint: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - Core Viewpoint: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core Viewpoint: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - Trading Strategy: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Core Viewpoint: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - Trading Strategy: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - Core Viewpoint: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core Viewpoint: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - Trading Strategy: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - Core Viewpoint: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - Core Viewpoint: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - Trading Strategy: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - Core Viewpoint: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - Trading Strategy: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Core Viewpoint: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core Viewpoint: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - Core Viewpoint: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - Trading Strategy: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - Core Viewpoint: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - Trading Strategy: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - Core Viewpoint: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - Trading Strategy: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - Core Viewpoint: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - Trading Strategy: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core Viewpoint: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - Trading Strategy: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - Core Viewpoint: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - Trading Strategy: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - Core Viewpoint: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - Core Viewpoint: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - Trading Strategy: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core Viewpoint: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - Trading Strategy: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core Viewpoint: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - Trading Strategy: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - Core Viewpoint: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - Trading Strategy: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - Core Viewpoint: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - Core Viewpoint: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - Trading Strategy: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - Core Viewpoint: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - Trading Strategy: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - Core Viewpoint: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - Trading Strategy: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - Core Viewpoint: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - Trading Strategy: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - Core Viewpoint: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - Trading Strategy: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - Core Viewpoint: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - Trading Strategy: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - Core Viewpoint: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - Trading Strategy: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Core Viewpoint: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - Trading Strategy: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - Core Viewpoint: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - Core Viewpoint: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - Core Viewpoint: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - Core Viewpoint: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - Core Viewpoint: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillate