原油：短线观望，关注伊朗问题等上行风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report suggests short - term observation on crude oil and focuses on upside risks such as the Iranian issue. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all have closed arbitrage windows, with respective arbitrage values of -$3.41, -$4.12, -$4.16, -$5.81, and -$8.53 per barrel. Reasons include unprofitable imports, insufficient cracking profit, high freight offsetting premium, weak African oil demand, and lack of competitiveness in the US Gulf [1]. 3.2 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a closed arbitrage window with an arbitrage value of -$0.63 per barrel due to limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space. Arab Extra Light has an open arbitrage window with an arbitrage value of $1.81 per barrel, indicating an arbitrage opportunity for Saudi light crude in the US East [2]. 3.3 Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIME H, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have open arbitrage windows with arbitrage values of $1.53, $1.82, and $1.57 per barrel respectively, due to可观 cracking profit, strong demand for US light shale oil, and improved cost - effectiveness of Nigerian crude. Azeri Light has a closed arbitrage window with an arbitrage value of -$0.27 per barrel due to environmental policy constraints on high - sulfur crude [4]. 3.4 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk have closed arbitrage windows with arbitrage values of -$23.07, -$23.88, -$23.79, and -$26.21 per barrel respectively, due to low Mediterranean demand, high freight, lack of economic viability of Nigerian crude, and structural surplus pressure on North Sea crude [4]. 3.5 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford have closed arbitrage windows with arbitrage values of -$10.43, -$11.67, -$16.45, and -$8.88 per barrel respectively, due to fierce competition in East Asia, weak demand for Nigerian crude, squeezed market share of North Sea crude, and narrowed arbitrage space for US shale oil [5]. 3.6 Key Market News - The US Energy Secretary said Venezuela's oil production may increase by 50% in 18 months [5]. - The US Senate passed a war - power resolution by 52 to 47 votes, limiting Trump's ability to take military action against Venezuela [6]. - The US December New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.4%, up from the previous value of 3.20% [8]. - India's Reliance Industries will consider buying Venezuelan oil if allowed to sell to non - US buyers [8]. - Venezuela is actively cooperating with the Trump administration on a plan to export oil to the US, with the goal of exporting 30 - 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil [8].