棕榈油:等待利空出尽,关注宏观情绪影响豆油:单边区间为主,关注月差机会豆粕:震荡,等待下周USDA报告
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-09 01:31
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - Palm oil: Wait for the negative factors to be fully priced in and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The price will mainly move within a range, and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities between different contract months [2][4]. - Soybean meal: The price will fluctuate, waiting for next week's USDA report [2][11]. - Soybean: The price will adjust and fluctuate [2][11]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market [2][14]. - Sugar: The price will mainly consolidate within a range [2][18]. - Cotton: The price will fluctuate following the overall market sentiment [2][23]. - Eggs: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [2][29]. - Live pigs: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [2][32]. - Peanuts: The price will move in a volatile manner [2][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - Fundamental data: Palm oil's day - session closing price increased by 0.58%, and the night - session remained unchanged; soybean oil's day - session closing price decreased by 0.18%, and the night - session remained unchanged; rapeseed oil's day - session closing price decreased by 1.53%, and the night - session decreased by 0.04%. The trading volume of palm oil increased by 176,298 lots, and the position increased by 326 lots; the trading volume of soybean oil decreased by 38,383 lots, and the position increased by 20,895 lots; the trading volume of rapeseed oil increased by 20,169 lots, and the position increased by 20,113 lots [4]. - Macro and industry news: Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints; in 2025, Indonesia's palm oil biodiesel consumption was 14.2 billion liters, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year; the USDA commissioner predicts that Malaysia's palm oil exports in 2025/26 will be about 16.2 million tons, and the ending inventory will drop to 2.16 million tons [5][8]. Soybean meal and Soybean - Fundamental data: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price increased by 0.94%, and the night - session decreased by 0.21%; DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price decreased by 0.32%, and the night - session decreased by 0.89%. The trading volume of soybean meal was 410,000 tons per day, and the inventory was 1.0505 million tons per week [11]. - Macro and industry news: On January 8, CBOT soybeans slightly declined due to lower - than - expected export sales. As of January 1, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased by 26% from the previous week and 42% from the four - week average [11][13]. Corn - Fundamental data: The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.57%; the closing price of C2603 was 2,266 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.52%, and the night - session decreased by 0.13%. The trading volume of C2603 increased by 35,209 lots, and the position increased by 22,891 lots; the trading volume of C2605 increased by 2,930 lots, and the position increased by 14,570 lots [15]. - Macro and industry news: The northern corn bulk shipping port price remained stable, the Guangdong Shekou price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, the Northeast deep - processing corn price was stable with a slight increase, and the North China corn price slightly increased [16]. Sugar - Fundamental data: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01; the mainstream spot price was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the futures main contract price was 5,279 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 [18]. - Macro and industry news: As of December 31, 2025, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 24% year - on - year; Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% increase year - on - year; China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons [18]. Cotton - Fundamental data: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.96%, and the night - session decreased by 0.20%; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,795 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.21%, and the night - session decreased by 0.07%. The trading volume of CF2605 increased by 49,121 lots, and the position decreased by 46,452 lots; the trading volume of CY2603 decreased by 1,999 lots, and the position increased by 1,045 lots [24]. - Macro and industry news: The cotton spot trading improved but not significantly, and the cotton textile enterprise's demand was weak, with some weaving factories planning to have an early holiday at the end of this month [25]. Eggs - Fundamental data: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,980 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the trading volume decreased by 284 lots, and the position decreased by 5,335 lots; the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,009 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the trading volume increased by 22,051 lots, and the position increased by 284 lots [29]. - Macro and industry news: No relevant content provided. Live pigs - Fundamental data: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 12,950 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 12,760 yuan/ton. The closing price of live pig 2603 was 11,785 yuan/ton, the closing price of live pig 2605 was 12,260 yuan/ton, and the closing price of live pig 2607 was 12,940 yuan/ton [33]. - Macro and industry news: Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December [34]. Peanuts - Fundamental data: The closing price of PK603 was 8,046 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.37%; the closing price of PK605 was 7,986 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.37%. The trading volume of PK603 decreased by 68,988 lots, and the position increased by 2,854 lots; the trading volume of PK605 decreased by 12,710 lots, and the position increased by 2,571 lots [37]. - Macro and industry news: The spot prices of peanuts in various regions were basically stable, with small changes in the amount of goods on the market and demand [38].