铝：市场情绪降温，氧化铝：供应过剩未改，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for aluminum has cooled, the supply surplus of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 23,725 yuan, down 635 yuan from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,088 dollars, up 102 dollars from a week ago. The trading volume and open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased. The LME canceled warrant ratio was 10.66%, down 0.36% from the previous trading day [1] - Alumina: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,863 yuan, down 75 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased [1] - Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan, down 450 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest increased [1] Spot Market - Aluminum: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 718,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warrant was 90,200 tons, up 2,300 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 499,800 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [1] - Alumina: The average domestic alumina price was 2,693 yuan, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 334 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Aluminum Alloy: The three - place inventory totaled 44,082 tons, down 257 tons from the previous trading day [1] Other Information - 1000 enterprises are suing the US government, demanding the refund of 133 billion dollars in tariffs, and the US Supreme Court may make a final decision this week, which has a profound impact on global supply chains and trade policies [3] - The annual re - balancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) starts after the market on January 8th and lasts until the 14th. TD Securities predicts that 7.7 billion dollars of silver sell - off will flood the market in the next two weeks, which may cause a significant price correction. Aluminum is among the commodities under relatively large re - balancing selling pressure [3]