硅铁：多空盘面博弈，警惕持仓风险，锰硅：多空盘面博弈，警惕持仓风险

Report Information - Report Date: January 9, 2026 [1] - Report Title: "Silicon Ferrosilicon: Long-Short Disk Game, Beware of Position Risks; Manganese Silico-Manganese: Long-Short Disk Game, Beware of Position Risks" [1] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico-manganese markets are experiencing a long-short disk game, and investors should be vigilant about position risks [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The price of silicon ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton; the price of manganese silico - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43 yuan/ton degree; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [2] - Price Differences: The spot - 03 futures price difference of silicon ferrosilicon is - 318 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton; that of manganese silico - manganese is - 142 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton. The 2603 - 2605 near - far month price difference of silicon ferrosilicon is 18 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of manganese silico - manganese is - 28 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The 2603 cross - variety price difference between manganese silico - manganese and silicon ferrosilicon is 224 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the 2605 cross - variety price difference is 270 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [2] 2. Futures Data - Silicon Ferrosilicon Futures: The closing price of silicon ferrosilicon 2603 is 5668 yuan/ton, down 192 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 276,442 and an open interest of 233,414; the closing price of silicon ferrosilicon 2605 is 5650 yuan/ton, down 182 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,835 and an open interest of 64,230 [3] - Manganese Silico - Manganese Futures: The closing price of manganese silico - manganese 2603 is 5892 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 275,888 and an open interest of 264,806; the closing price of manganese silico - manganese 2605 is 5920 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 188,383 and an open interest of 250,192 [3] 3. Macro and Industry News - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese Prices: On January 8, the price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton (+50), in Ningxia was 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton (+50), in Qinghai was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (+100), in Gansu was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (+50), and in Inner Mongolia was 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton (+50). The price of 75 silicon ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 manganese silico - manganese was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Brazilian Manganese Ore Exports: In December 2025, the export volume of Brazilian manganese ore was 55,851 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 73.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.96%. The export volume to China was 51,224 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 74.99% from 204,807 tons in the previous month, accounting for 91.7% of the total export volume, with a unit FOB price of 91.56 dollars/ton. The total export volume of Brazilian manganese ore in 2025 was 1.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.9%, but still at a low level compared to exports before 2021 due to unfavorable market conditions, strict export regulations, and high operating costs [3][4] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferrosilicon is 0, and that of manganese silico - manganese is 0 [4]