宁证期货今日早评-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and it is advisable to take a short - term approach for oil investments. The economic resilience indicated by jobless claims data increases negative factors for silver, which may follow gold in high - level oscillations [2]. - The short - term supply - demand game for live pigs continues, with futures prices oscillating in a range. For palm oil, there is a game between "Indonesian policy positive expectations" and "Malaysian high - inventory reality", and short - term participation is recommended [4]. - For soybean meal, the supply in the first quarter is generally abundant, restricting the upside space of spot prices, and short - term participation is advised. The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of stable supply and demand [5][6]. - The short - term upward trend of steel prices may be blocked. For coking coal, the risk of this round of price increase is high, and cautious operation is recommended. PTA is better to be observed in the short term [7][8]. - Natural rubber should be treated with wide - range oscillations, and short - term short positions at high levels are advisable. Aluminum prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation stage in the short term [9][10]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The tightening of the capital market due to the issuance of treasury bonds at the beginning of the year is negative for treasury bond futures [11][12]. - Gold has long - term bullish support but a high probability of a short - term peak, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Four countries (Iraq, UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman) plan to cut daily production by 829,000 barrels by June 2026 to compensate for over - production from January to April last year. Geopolitical concerns in Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran led to a sharp overnight rebound in oil prices [2]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations and still at a historically low level. The market generally expects the Fed not to cut interest rates in January, increasing negative factors for silver [2]. Live Pigs - On January 8, the national average pork price was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from the previous day. The short - term supply - demand game continues, and futures prices oscillate in a range [4]. Palm Oil - In Indonesia, the consumption of palm - based biodiesel last year was 14.2 million liters, up 7.6% year - on - year. Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax. There is a game between positive policy expectations and high - inventory reality [4]. Soybean Meal - On January 8, domestic soybean meal spot prices showed mixed trends. The supply in the first quarter is generally abundant, restricting the upside space of spot prices [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Raw material prices are rising, supply is growing steadily, and demand is mainly for rigid needs and long - term contracts [6]. Rebar - As of January 8, rebar production increased by 1.5%, factory inventory by 6.14%, social inventory by 2.66%, and apparent demand decreased by 12.71% compared to the previous week. The short - term upward trend may be blocked [7]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 5.7% month - on - month. The risk of this round of price increase is high, and the inventory pressure remains high [8]. PTA - PTA social inventory decreased, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter is increasing. It is better to observe in the short term [8]. Natural Rubber - Southeast Asian raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, domestic production areas are in the off - season, and the demand side is in a state of flexible production control. It should be treated with wide - range oscillations [9]. Aluminum - A new bauxite project in Cameroon is expected to start production in 2026. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, downstream demand is slightly decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - duty soda ash rose slightly, production increased by 8.11% week - on - week, and inventory increased by 11.67% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - Money market interest rates mostly rose. The tightening of the capital market due to the issuance of treasury bonds at the beginning of the year is negative for treasury bond futures [12]. Gold - Gold has become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years. It has long - term bullish support but a high probability of a short - term peak [13]. Plastic - Supply pressure has been slightly relieved, production enterprise inventory has decreased, and demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [14].