山金期货黑色板块日报-20260109

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the steel market, the supply - demand situation is weak during the consumption off - season. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the off - season. Although macro - level confidence is enhanced, market supervision actions have an impact on market sentiment. For the iron ore market, demand may decline seasonally, supply remains high, and the rising price of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - Demand Situation: Last week, threaded steel production increased, overall inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased overall, inventory increased, and production increased slightly. Steel mill production may continue to decline due to falling margins and the consumption off - season. Winter storage is still some time away [2]. - Market Sentiment: Macro - level confidence has been enhanced, with the stock market rising strongly and positive policy expectations boosting confidence. However, the market supervision action has affected market sentiment [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - Data Summary: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day and up 46 yuan or 1.47% from the previous week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.32%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 227.43 million tons, up 0.85 million tons or 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Supply - Demand Situation: Last week, the overall production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased. The market is still in the off - season, and molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The restocking demand before the Spring Festival will come later this year. On the supply side, global shipments remain high, and the rising port inventory suppresses futures prices. The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The 05 contract is strongly supported by the 10 - day moving average, and a mid - term upward trend is emerging [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3]. - Data Summary: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 813 yuan/dry ton, down 15.0 yuan or 1.81% from the previous day and up 23.5 yuan or 2.98% from the previous week. The overseas iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 1698.5 million tons, down 207.0 million tons or 10.86% from the previous week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - As of the week of January 8, threaded steel production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory and social inventories turned from decreasing to increasing, and apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. The social inventory of threaded steel was 290.18 million tons, an increase of 7.52 million tons or 2.66% from the previous week. The apparent demand for threaded steel was 174.96 million tons, a decrease of 25.48 million tons or 12.71% from the previous week [7]. - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37% from the previous week and an increase of 27.04% from the same period last year. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [7].