PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度PDH检修预期较强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The end - year fundamentals of PP have limited support. The cost - side PDH profit remains low, and multiple PDH units in South China have maintenance expectations. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep PDH profit losses [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 was 6,484, a daily decline of 0.03%. The trading volume was 557,946, and the open - interest decreased by 8,586 [1]. - Basis and Spread Changes: The basis of the 05 contract was - 204, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 52 [1]. - Important Spot Prices: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,250, 6,280, and 6,350 yuan/ton respectively. The price in South China increased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The market was volatile. Some arbitrage resources could not be unwound. The sales pressure on the spot side was moderate, and traders were generally inclined to hold prices. The prices of some tight - supply grades increased slightly. End - year demand was difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying was questionable, and the warehouse receipts remained at a high level. The PP US dollar market price remained stable. Overseas suppliers were not enthusiastic about offering prices to China, and downstream buyers continued to make rigid purchases, with little improvement in trading [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil and propane prices were strong. There was a valuation differentiation within olefins, and the internal and upstream profit - end valuations of PE were higher than those of PP [2]. - Supply Side: There was no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensified [2]. - Demand Side: New orders from downstream industries weakened, and downstream factories were still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0 [3].