格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260109

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified. Investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 1001.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.82% to 18368.0 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 8, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.86. COMEX gold recovered after hitting the bottom and closed slightly higher, while COMEX silver declined slightly after a sharp drop [2] Important Information - As of January 8, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1067.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.6% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 208,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 210,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits increased by 56,000 to 1.914 million, indicating an increase in the difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs and the accumulation of long - term unemployment risks [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has set this Friday as the day to issue an opinion on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff plan. Analysts expect that if the court rules the tariff illegal, the stock market may be boosted, while the U.S. bond market may face selling pressure [1] Market Logic - The U.S. ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than the forecast. The number of job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million. The U.S. ISM services PMI in December rose to 54.4, the highest since October 2024 [1] - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains below 20%. CME Group raised the performance margins for gold and silver futures on December 31. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for silver futures on January 7 [2] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [2] - Geopolitical risks increased due to the U.S. attack on Venezuela on January 3 [2] Trading Strategy - Adjust positions and control risks due to intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]