国新国证期货早报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 8, 2026 - Stock Market: The three major A-share indices showed a mixed trend. The Shanghai Composite Index ended with a 0.07% decline at 4082.98 points after a "15-day consecutive gain." The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.51% to 13959.48 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.82% to 3302.31 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2826.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Futures Market: - Index Futures: The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust, closing at 4737.65, down 39.01 [2]. - Energy Futures: The coke weighted index closed at 1766.3, up 43.3, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1191.1 yuan, up 52.6 [2][3]. - Agricultural Futures: - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract opened higher but closed slightly up after a late - session decline. Brazil's sugar exports in December 2025 increased by 2.8% year - on - year [4]. - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber futures adjusted slightly lower on Thursday and continued to decline at night due to a drop in tire factory operating rates [4]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. The main contract P2605 closed at 8612, up 0.58% [4]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower on January 8. In the domestic market, the M2605 main contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton, down 1.03% [5]. - Pork: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11720 yuan/ton, down 0.55% [5]. - Metal Futures: - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract closed sharply lower at 101220 yuan/ton, down 2.76%. The trading volume was 3.035 million lots, and the open interest was 2.041 million lots [5]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14710 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventories increased by 140 lots [5]. - Logs: The main contract of logs 2603 closed at 778.5, with a daily reduction of 258 lots [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract closed down 0.37% at 813 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2602 main contract closed down 0.76% at 3117 yuan [7]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract closed at 3168 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3317 yuan/ton [7]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2863 yuan/ton [7]. - Aluminum: The al2602 contract closed at 23725 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - Coke and Coking Coal: The fourth - round reduction in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented. Coking enterprise profits have declined, but the overall production remains stable. The demand for coke from steel mills is weak due to low blast furnace profits. For coking coal, domestic production has increased as mines in major producing areas have resumed production, while the demand from downstream coking enterprises is weak, and most coal prices have declined slightly [4]. - Sugar: Brazil's increased sugar exports in December 2025 indicate a potential short - term demand recovery, which boosted the US sugar price and influenced the Zhengzhou sugar futures [4]. - Rubber: The decline in tire factory operating rates has put pressure on the rubber futures price [4]. - Palm Oil: Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints, and the B50 biodiesel road test has started, with plans to implement it in the second half of this year [4][5]. - Soybean Meal: In the international market, US soybean export sales decreased, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase. In the domestic market, high - level soybean inventories and expected abundant supply in the first quarter are due to large - scale US soybean purchases and Brazil's soybean harvest [5]. - Pork: In the short term, the supply pressure has decreased as some farms have reduced their slaughter plans, and the demand from the pickling and enema market has supported the price. However, in the long term, the supply pressure remains [5]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar, weak overseas demand expectations, increased domestic copper inventories, and under - expected terminal demand have put pressure on the copper price [5]. - Logs: Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, including price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments, increased port inventories, and the expected increase in iron production due to improved steel mill profitability have led to a volatile iron ore price [7]. - Asphalt: The expected reduction in asphalt supply from local refineries and uncertain raw material supply due to the South American geopolitical conflict, along with weak downstream demand, have resulted in a volatile asphalt price [7]. - Steel: The black futures market has shown an upward trend, but steel mills' low - level production and traders' inventory - digestion strategies have led to a cautious market [7]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina remains excessive, and the cost support is weak due to the expected increase in bauxite supply [7]. - Aluminum: The macro - market sentiment has cooled slightly, but the non - ferrous metal market remains at a high level. The supply of aluminum is normal, and the demand is improving [7]. 3. Market Outlook and Suggestions - Soybean Meal: Monitor South American weather conditions and soybean arrival volumes [5]. - Pork: Pay attention to the changes in the number of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms, and the demand during the pickling season [5]. - Logs: Focus on the support from the spot market [5][7].